Original post:
From Energy Metro Desk via thge CME:
Previewing the Energy Information Administration's 9/19/13 report.
Each week, we poll 40 professional storage forecasts for our weekly Natural-Gas Storage Box Scores (as seen in each bi-weekly issue of Energy Metro Desk*). This is North America's biggest and most comprehensive natural-gas storage survey and report.And via FinViz look at the action from 7:00 a.m, $3.7570 last:
Average: +54 Bcf
Median: +54 Bcf
Range: +47 to 62 Bcf
Editors Forecast This Week: +50 Bcf
Natural Gas Storage Tealeaves for 9/19/13
Last week's 65 Bcf reported build out of EIA caught many of us by surprise -- and nobody likes a surprise in this market (except algo traders maybe). Though the report came in only three Bcf below our consensus, the point that snarled us was the fact the bias was all wrong again -- we were sure that the risk to the high side was a gimme. Except for that confounding Holiday Effect. This week, we feel similarly confident the risk is to the low side of the consensus. The Survey Index (average of all the big survey averages) came in at 56.5 Bcf and our Metro desk Consensus was even lower at 54 Bcf (avg. and median). We note too that the spread of forecasts between the three surveys we track was just a hair below the magic 3 Bcf number; it came in at 2.9. Recall that a 3 or more Bcf spread between analyst categories typically (+80% probability) points to a surprise forecast out of EIA by 5 Bcf or more (high or low). Our broader range of forecasts is also a tad higher than normal this week at 47 to 62 Bcf. We're not calling for a low-side surprise, but, it wouldn't surprise us. A whole lot of nuke generation had to be covered this past week let us not forget. And the weather...there's the weather too. The good folks up North at Global Nat Gas Analytics (at 56 Bcf this week) noted that due to storms, they saw some interruptions in Gulf production, and also saw a decrease in power burn due to cooling temperatures in the NE, and a drop in NE production. We note that Gabe Harris torqued down his forecast this week from last Friday, down to 50 Bcf. "My forecast was falling all week. I was at 75 Bcf last Monday! While I found the Holiday to be no big deal...the absence of a holiday is a big deal. Add to that some more nuke refuelling and I come in at 50 Bcf." Good points. The nuke/gas demand trigger however may not be so significant for the rest of the season according to Tony Yuen of CITI. He says that this Fall's nuclear outage season is expected to be lighter than last year, averaging 17.7-GW between now and mid-Nov vs. ~22-GW at the same time last year." Gas demand could be 70-Bcf lower y/y up until mid-November and could even reach 100-Bcf by mid-December, if gas-fired generation was the sole substitute for nuclear last year. The pattern of aggregate nuclear outages typically follow a three-year cycle, so this fall's outage pattern looks similar to the one in 2010, while last year's pattern resembled the path in 2009," he says.
So, as we mentioned, just about everybody overestimated their injection picks last week, in just about every region. The East seemed to be a really tough nut, however. Even Bentek noted that it over-shot that region by 5 Bcf. They rationalized that total East Region CDDs fell by 11 from the prior week, and when you combine this with the Holiday weekend demand dip -- an estimated 1.5 Bcf/d decline in power demand from the prior week you get a bit closer to EIA's nutty low number. The big B noted that it has overestimated injections in the East Region for five of the previous six weeks, "suggesting an underestimation of demand in the region." Seems like it, but we don't exactly why. Another case for EIA to investigate we reckon. --the editor...MORE
