This is the second week in a row that the guesstimators were caught on the wrong side, last week the number was more bearish than expected, this week more bullish.
We stopped posting the CME's contributor, Energy Metro Desk, ahead of the EIA a couple week's ago when we noticed that what had been the most accurate of the public pronouncements (Bloomberg analyst poll and Platts being the others we used) was missing the number. Until this changes we're posting it with the EIA release rather than prior to it.
We'll have more this afternoon, in the meantime there is a lot of gas around.
From the Energy Information Administration:
for week ending September 6, 2013. | Released: September 12, 2013 at 10:30 a.m. | Next Release: September 19, 2013
| Working gas in underground storage, lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical Comparisons | |||||||||||||||
| Stocks billion cubic feet (Bcf) |
Year ago (09/06/12) |
5-Year average (2008-2012) |
|||||||||||||
| Region | 09/06/13 | 08/30/13 | change | (Bcf) | % change | (Bcf) | % change | ||||||||
| East | 1,647 | 1,598 | 49 | 1,826 | -9.8 | 1,761 | -6.5 | ||||||||
| West | 507 | 505 | 2 | 494 | 2.6 | 453 | 11.9 | ||||||||
| Producing | 1,099 | 1,085 | 14 | 1,106 | -0.6 | 993 | 10.7 | ||||||||
| Salt | 262 | 261 | 1 | 209 | 25.4 | 153 | 71.2 | ||||||||
| Nonsalt | 836 | 824 | 12 | 897 | -6.8 | 840 | -0.5 | ||||||||
| Total | 3,253 | 3,188 | 65 | 3,425 | -5.0 | 3,207 | 1.4 | ||||||||
...MORE
Here's the response from the futures:
And EMD's Thu 12 Sep 2013 08:26:31 CT report:
Natural Gas Storage Tealeaves for 9/12/13
Previewing the Energy Information Administration's 9/12/13 report.
Each week, we poll 40 professional storage forecasts for our weekly Natural-Gas Storage Box Scores (as seen in each bi-weekly issue of Energy Metro Desk*). This is North America's biggest and most comprehensive natural-gas storage survey and report.
Average: +68.6 Bcf
Median: +69 Bcf
Range: +58 to 75 Bcf
Editors Forecast This Week: +69 Bcf
Natural Gas Storage Tealeaves for 9/12/13
The range this week -- like, every range this week -- is oddly tight. Our survey range was a very slim 51 to 60 Bcf, far tighter than most other surveys which averaged ranges of 46 to 65 Bcf. The range between the tree categories we track may be the slimmest we've ever seen: .3 Bcf. Recall if it's over three Bcf between the three categories we track, the chances are very good we'll see a surprise number out of EIA. The range has tightened up quite a bit since last Friday's Early View Report; last week, our early forecast average came in at 56.6 Bcf and the range between the 17 forecasts was 49 to 65 Bcf. Nothing in our tealeaves points to a surprise report this week coming out if EIA but we have a sneaking suspicion the report will come in a wee bit lower than the consensus of 54.5 Bcf. Our editor is at 51 Bcf tis week, one of the survey's LowBallers. Our standard deviation at 2.6 is the lowest we've seen in more than eight weeks. Recall that last week's report came in a wee bit higher than the market, so, this week, the editor thinks EIA might give up a few to get the balance back. And we may find that the heat last week sucked a lot more gas out of the mix than previously expected. Special thanks to the continually opaque producing region for all the surprises this year. So, low to lo-mid 50's should be right in the groove this week. --the editor
Weather Tealeaves
Forecast Courtesy of the Commodity Weather Group (www.commoditywx.com)
Thought of the Day: Peak East Coast Heat Day
Today should be the hottest day of the month for the East Coast and one of the hottest of the summer with highs in the middle 90s from Boston to DC along with moderate humidity. The eastern Midwest should see some low 90s today before a massive cool front moves through for tomorrow and hits the East on Friday. That impressive cooling pushes lows into the 40s in Chicago by Saturday morning. The latest 6-15 day view is a fairly quiet one as climatology cools to the point that only strong heat or cooling events can generate anomalous demand. The warm-leaning view for late next week into the 11-15 day for the Midwest to East starts to shift slightly bearish for demand. The Atlantic tropics are quiet for North America, but a weak Gulf system this weekend could cool Texas with rains yet early next week....MORE
