Wednesday, September 18, 2013

Interest Rates: Rosenberg Called It

Not the Taper bet, rather the end to the selling that got the 10-year yield to 2.99% on Sept. 5.
Currently 2.759% off of a 2.689 earlier. Dow Jones says the low was 2.728%, I know I saw some below 2.7.
Here's the post from Sept. 13:

Corrected--2yr-10yr Yield Spread Says Time For A Bond Sell-off Pause
You don't find much from Rosenberg here in our little corner of the www, he would not change his mind after it became apparent what the Fed was doing so all his fine doom-n-gloom arguments were moot and he ended up costing Gluskin's clients a lot of opportunity over the last 4 1/2 years.
But he's right on this. 10-year yield 2.90% down .01 and off quite a few basis points from the 2.98% of Sept. 5.

From Pragmatic Capitalism:
David Rosenberg: Secular Bull in Bonds is Dead, but Expect a Near-term Rally
  • Yield curve has hit near maximum steep levels....MORE
Source: Gluskin Sheff

The Gluskin Sheff chart didn't take so here's the St. Louis Fed's version of the 10-year yield minus the 2-year.
Note the high-spread areas, we are definitely at the top end of the range...
This morning's "Guggenheim Partners: 'Why now may be the most opportune time to buy bonds than at any time in the past two years.'" was also right, at least for now.