Friday, September 6, 2013

Barclays Says Gold to $1482 if Taper Delayed...

...but I'm not seeing it.
$1387.40 last, $1393.60 daily top tick which was also the first of Wykoff's buy stops.
First up today's pop:

 
If that were a stock, and the pattern had developed over weeks rather than minutes we'd be looking at one of the most powerful bullish formations in all of chartland, a high tight flag.
But it's not.
And from Kitco August 23:
Barclays says it views the risks for the gold market as being skewed to the downside under its base-case scenario for how it expects events in the second half of the year to play out. “Our model projects that the price will post a small uptick by the end of Q3 ‘13 but face downward pressure in Q4, reaching an average of $1,294/oz for Q4 13 ($31/oz below our forecast),” the bank says. “Our model stresses three alternative scenarios, and in line with our expectations finds that should the likelihood of a federal funds rate hike increase, further downside risk for prices is likely, declining to $1,229/oz in December 2013. But if Fed tapering is delayed into say December, the model sees prices rising to $1,482/oz as soon as October.” The seasonally strong period for demand from India is about to begin ahead of fall festivals, including Diwali. However, Barclays cautions, “we expect physical demand support to be limited in light of the recent import duty and regulatory changes.” The Indian government has enacted measures intended to slow gold imports due to a large current-account deficit.
 BARC also has one of the highest calls for the yield on the 10-year, 3.7%.