Weekly Natural Gas Storage Survey: Injection of 34Bcf

Via the CME:

Previewing the Energy Information Administration's 5/23/13 report.

Each week, we poll 40 professional storage forecasts for our weekly Natural-Gas Storage Box Scores (as seen in each bi-weekly issue of Energy Metro Desk*). This is North America's biggest and most comprehensive natural-gas storage survey and report.

Energy Metro Desk editors forecast this week:  +34 Bcf
Average: +30.6 Bcf
Median: +30 Bcf
Range: +25 to +38 Bcf

Current Storage Level: 1,734 Bcf
Surplus under/over 2012: 807 Bcf (32%)
Surplus under/over 5 Yr Avg: 94 Bcf (5%)

Natural Gas Storage Tea leaves

Last week we noted that the chances for an EIA report surprise were next to nil, and guess what, we were right on the money. EIA came in at 30 Bcf and our consensus estimate was a wee bit higher at 31.8 Bcf. The majority of the big surveys were also within a couple points of the EIA last week. And this week, well, looks like an encore. Two weeks of snoozers is what we're faced with, and generally speaking, everybody seems OK with this odd slice of Spring reality. This year, Winter lasted too long, confounding everybody's models, and by extension, everybody's 2013 BoxScores. So, now that a late-ish shoulder season is upon us, how does this change anything? Lots of folks think so. Some folks are already suggesting it's going to be a good thing for Summer prices (higher prices that is), but, we don't see it. Others suggest it's a sure sign that the end of season tally will definitely be greater than last year, though not exactly at record levels. We not quite sure how folks are coming up with this stuff, but, there it is. This week, our range of 39 forecasts was tight at 25 to 38 Bcf and the standard deviation is appropriately low at 3.0. The spread between the three forecast categories we track -- independent analysts, surveys and bank analysts is pretty tight as well at 2.1 Bcf. Of course, were the spread to go over 3.0 Bcf, a surprise would have been signaled. Not this time...unless of course some operators made a mistake or reported late to EIA. We see a lot of odd stuff this time of year. Like, under-reporting? Speaking of odd stuff, the good folks at Genscape put together a chart for us today that details what seems to be a pattern over the last couple years. Andy Krebs tells us the EIA weekly methodology using the 912 is underestimating injections during April and May when compared to the more complete 191 sample. "I am curious if they have an explanation and if they have changed anything to correct for this," Krebs asks. We included the EIA comparison below for your reference. At this point, none of us have been able to rationalize any juicy conclusion from the numbers, but we have posted the question to the folks at the EIA Storage Desk for a comment. It should be interesting to watch the monthly numbers actualize. "Not that this will have a material impact on my end of season number, but in a world that cares so much about the week to week accuracy I think it is important to put it all in perspective of what the EIA accuracy during this time really is..." True enough. We'll get back to you on the EIA's response. Thanks to Genscape for the lead.

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