From the New York Times DealBook:
Tesla’s Disappearing Data
Tesla Motors regularly gave out a crucial number that gave the public a good idea of how much demand existed for its electric cars.
On Wednesday, the company said it was no longer going to provide that data, explaining that it was “no longer a meaningful metric.”
The figure in question is how many reservations existed for Tesla’s cars at the end of each quarter. The reservation number was useful because it could be analyzed to calculate how many orders were coming in each quarter for its cars.
Outsiders valued that visibility because, over all, it’s hard to gauge how much demand exists for Tesla’s automobiles.
The company’s supporters say the market for its products could be substantial. They contend that Tesla’s sedan, the Model S, is so good that it will change how people view electric vehicles. In turn, that could generate even more demand for its products.
The doubters, however, think there may not be that many buyers of Tesla’s cars beyond the electric car enthusiasts who have swooped in early. As a result, an early surge in sales could soon wane, they argue.
In explaining its decision to stop giving out the reservation data, Tesla said that as its production line had become more reliable, potential buyers would not have to get in line for their cars in quite the same way as before. Now, customers in North America will place their order online rather than “placing a generic reservation in a queue.”...MORESo hows about we set up some prop bets on the number of vehicles purchased?
And if you lose money blame Izabella Kaminska at FT Alphaville. She's written a post, "Tesla’s rise and the credit connection" that takes a look at the stock, the company, the carbon credits and their share of revs/profits, the run-up in ethanol's RIN credits and really bad electricity puns:
...Now, we don’t want to undermine Tesla’s strong quarter — which we think is very encouraging — and we appreciate that correlation is definitely not to be confused with causation, but given Tesla’s environmental credit exposure it’s worth highlighting another event which took place in the last six months which may have some bearing.
We’re referring to the spectacular rise in the price of Renewable Identification Number (RIN) ethanol credits, which jumped 20-fold to records above $1 this March as traders feared stocks would be depleted by 2014. US federal law requires refiners and wholesalers to blend increasing amounts of biofuels each year into the petrol they sell. They can also buy RIN credits as a substitute for meeting blending obligations.
In fact, Tesla’s stock began to outperform just after RIN prices peaked on March 11. RINs are obviously different to Tesla’s zero emission vehicle (ZEV) credits, but there are some crossed influences.So how did the market respond to the 20-banger in RIN's?
As the FT’s Greg Meyer noted during the rally, the epic RIN price rise sparked fears that retail pump prices would stay high even if the US became more energy independent....MORE
Bioversel Trading ran the same load of biodiesel back and forth:
"Because RINs can be generated through import, the 12 trainloads that crossed into Michigan would have contained enough biodiesel to create close to 12 million RINs."...MORE from the folks who broke the story, the CBC.In late April we noted the Chicago Merc had figured out a play but, not being as brazen as Bioversal, sought the CFTC's blessing first:
CME Group to Launch Futures Based on Renewable Identification Numbers (RIN credits)
My comment:
"This sure looks like the kind of side bets the 1890's bucket shops used to offer which, if it weren't for that pesky supremacy clause in the Constitution, would be illegal under state anti-gambling and anti-bucketshop laws.If we can't generate enough volume with "Reservation Futures" we surely could bet on the dollar volume of ZEV credits.
See also: Credit Default Swaps purchased by a party who doesn't own the underlying debt."
JPM's Blythe Masters, eat your heart out.
Next up, synthetic triple-levered inverse ZEV ETN's
First though, something I've been meaning to bookmark in public for the last few years:
THE LEHMAN BROTHERS
And it's all Izabella's fault for setting this "train" of thought in motion.
