Thursday, May 9, 2013

Natural Gas Supplants Gold as Safe Haven?

Long time readers know we don't care much for the passive voice in these parts.
Same goes for question marks in a headline.
That's just a passive-agressive way to say what you really think while retaining deniability, in other words, weak.

In this case I'm actually questioning the premise of the story. We've pointed out an anti-correlation between equities and natty but going so far as this Bloomberg headline seems nuts:

Natural Gas Becomes Haven in Gold Plunge: Riskless Return
Natural gas, the worst-performing and most volatile commodity of the past decade amid a glut in supply, is replacing gold as a haven for commodity investors as the metal slumps.

The heating and power-plant fuel produced the best risk- adjusted returns of 24 commodities in the Standard & Poor’s GSCI index over the last 12 months, rebounding from the worst ranking in the prior 10 years, the BLOOMBERG RISKLESS RETURN RANKING shows. Gold, the decade’s top performer, and silver tumbled as a stock market rally and a rising dollar curbed demand for the metals as a refuge.

Power plants and factories are stepping up their use of gas after a surge in production of the fuel from shale formations pushed prices to a 10-year low last year. Rising demand may make historically volatile gas a haven, Jeffrey Currie, head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in New York, said in an April 16 research note. Banks from Goldman Sachs to Citigroup Inc. are boosting their forecasts for natural gas prices while cutting their estimates for gold.

“Natural gas is emerging as a clear winner among commodity investments,” Teri Viswanath, director of commodities strategy at BNP Paribas SA in New York, said in a phone interview on May 1. “The late-winter rally has fueled expectations that gas will outperform alternative investments in the sector.”...

... The risk-adjusted return, which isn’t annualized, is calculated by dividing the total return by the volatility, or the degree of daily price variation, giving a measure of income per unit of risk. A higher volatility means the price of an asset can swing dramatically in a short period, increasing the potential for unexpected losses.

Getting Burned
For most of the past decade, investors have been burned by gas. Prices rose as high as $15.78 in 2005, then fell to a 10- year low of $1.902 in 2012. Even as it rebounds this year, it is still the most volatile commodity in the GSCI index, with a reading of 40.4, compared with 46.7 in the prior decade....MUCH MORE