Original post:
Something to remember when comparing inventory to the five year average: last years number was so large that it raises the entire five year curve. Excluding 2012 and comparing to the prior 4-years actually puts 2013 ahead of the average and goes a long way toward explaining the dramatic moves on what at first glance seems to be ho-hum injection numbers the last few weeks. The futures are down 14 cents at $3.93.
From the EIA:
for week ending May 10, 2013. | Released: May 16, 2013 at 10:30 a.m. | Next Release: May 23, 2013
| Working gas in underground storage, lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical Comparisons | |||||||||||||||
| Stocks billion cubic feet (Bcf) |
Year ago (05/10/12) |
5-Year average (2008-2012) |
|||||||||||||
| Region | 05/10/13 | 05/03/13 | change | (Bcf) | % change | (Bcf) | % change | ||||||||
| East | 811 | 756 | 55 | 1,229 | -34.0 | 916 | -11.5 | ||||||||
| West | 357 | 344 | 13 | 385 | -7.3 | 306 | 16.7 | ||||||||
| Producing | 796 | 765 | 31 | 1,044 | -23.8 | 825 | -3.5 | ||||||||
| Salt | 228 | 212 | 16 | 238 | -4.2 | 152 | 50.0 | ||||||||
| Nonsalt | 569 | 553 | 16 | 806 | -29.4 | 673 | -15.5 | ||||||||
| Total | 1,964 | 1,865 | 99 | 2,658 | -26.1 | 2,047 | -4.1 | ||||||||
Compare that to the Energy Metro Desk survey, which we've found to be more accurate than Dow Jones, Bloomberg or even Platts (backtested to February):
Previewing the Energy Information Administration's 5/16/13 report.
Each week, we poll 40 professional storage forecasts for our weekly Natural-Gas Storage Box Scores (as seen in each bi-weekly issue of Energy Metro Desk*). This is North America's biggest and most comprehensive natural-gas storage survey and report.
Energy Metro Desk editors forecast this week: +100 Bcf
Average: +95.4 Bcf
Median: +95 Bcf
Range: +90 to 106 Bcf
Current Storage Level: 1,865 Bcf
Surplus under/over 2012: 737 Bcf (28%)
Surplus under/over 5 Yr Avg: 99 Bcf (5%)
Natural Gas Storage Tealeaves
For the past two weeks EIA has come in to the high side. And despite this week's consensus coming in at 95.4 Bcf, we have a gut feeling (the editor does anyway) that the number may come in to the high side. Our editor came in a bit higher than the market at 100 Bcf.
Keep in mind every other survey came in at roughly 95 Bcf this week. This week the standard deviation was quite low and the spread between the three categories we track was almost nonexistent. So, why the gut-check high side risk? The reasons we've been able to conjure up about the past two highballer weeks appear to be in play again this week; and, EIA highballers have tended to come in three-series. Not much to go on, but there it is.
Analysts tell us that the 'regular season' begins this week folks, that is, the quirky shoulder thingy is done, done, done. Weather and demand being what they are, this week's build will undoubtedlyt be within 5 Bcf of the consensus, but, as we said, risk to the highside, not low side. So, if we see the number anywhere between 95-100 Bcf, the market should only move because traders are bored.
Bentek, oddly enough, shows both the S/D and Flow Models coming in at 93 Bcf with the risk to the low side. Hmm. Our EMD All Stars came in with a forecast of 94.1 Bcf. The 'dart' came in at 97 Bcf... This week's Annual Benposium Conference in Houston was a great success -- if you didn't make it this year, plan on it next year. The Bentek folks continue to put on a great show and we plan to feature a bit of coverage in next week's Energy Metro Desk. We also ran into some of our favorite gas analysts like Laurent Key from Socgen (and his new director of commodity strategy, Jeremy Friesen) and Kyle Cooper of IAF Advisors. Bottom line: US supply (and demand) is about to fundamentally change everything. Global gas benchmark? Maybe emerging later this year or early next.
Weather Tealeaves
Forecast Courtesy of the Commodity Weather Group."The overall pattern situation is still a seasonal to warm one for the U.S. and southern Canada over the next two weeks. We see some occasionally moderate to edge-of-strong
warming in some areas, but no major heat concerns again, keeping cumulative demand low
relative to various benchmarks. Some 80s get into the Midwest and East in the coming days
with lingering 80s in the lower Mid-Atlantic into early next week. But we see some slightly cooler changes to the forecast in the Northeast going into this weekend and in the central to western Midwest for the second part of the 6-10 day. A quick burst of heat into SoCal early next is currently not expected to rival the recent event. Texas edges a bit hotter today, but still mainly sees upper 80s to low 90s starting this weekend into early next week."...MORE
