Wednesday, April 3, 2013

UPDATED--Watching the Bank of Japan: Yen Stronger, Stocks Weaker

Update below.
Original post:
Yes, I have heard of this "Bitcoin".
And will probably nod wisely when someone makes the inevitable Mouse that Roared/North Korea* observation at the Thursday soirée.
Right now though its all Tokyo.

The Bloomberg Headline is "Yen Trades Near Strongest in a Month Before BOJ Decision" which leads to the Reuters headline "Nikkei set to fall on weak U.S. data; BOJ in focus" and thence to the only decent public analysis, Business Insider's horribly headlined/surprisingly smart "Japan's Great Economic Experiment Starts In Just A Few Hours — Here's What You Need To Know".

And we wait.

*From the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, April :
North Korea: The Mouse that Roared
I am usually a pretty serious guy and I try to treat my nuclear security threats fairly soberly. North Korea does terrible things to its people and uses threats of annihilation to extract aid from potential victims—sort of like the mafia—but big time.

But the metaphor that has worked for me for years to understand North Korea is the 1955 novel and 1959 movie, The Mouse that Roared. In it, the tiny European Grand Duchy of Fenwick decides to escape from dire economic straits by declaring war on the United States, hoping for speedy defeat and with it the benefits of a new Marshall Plan. The Grand Duchess Gloriana (played by Peter Sellers) dispatches Field Marshall Tully Bascombe (also played by remarkably look-alike Peter Sellers) and 23 men bearing medieval armor and bows and arrows to attack New York City.
In a twist of fate, they find New York’s streets deserted during a public security drill. They stumble into an unguarded weapons lab and discover and take a new secret weapon of mass destruction, the Q Bomb. Their armor persuades civil guards to believe they are from Mars and therefore dangerous.

With the Q Bomb safely back in Fenwick, the Grand Duchess, advised by her Prime Minster Count Rupert Mountjoy (also resembling close relation Peter Sellers), decides to set terms for peace. All nuclear nations must be subjected to international inspection of their nuclear arsenal and a group of the “Tiny Twenty” nations must be formed to balance the big powers. When the Duchess proceeds to marry Tully, the bomb is discovered by its creator to be a dud, but the secret is maintained to preserve world peace....MORE
Update: "Bank of Japan '"Shock And Awe' Post-Mortem From Goldman And SocGen""