Waiting for WASDE: Previewing the USDA's World Agricultural Supply Demand Estimate

Whatever happens it can't be as dramatic as the response to last month's Planting Intentions and Stocks reports: Limit Down.
From Agriculture.com:
Preview USDA's WASDE data

If Wednesday's monthly USDA World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE) report shows a U.S. corn carryout lower than 824 million bushels, look for a bullish response by the trade, analysts and traders said Tuesday.

Traders agree the 824-million-bushel mark is the tipping point between support and weakness for corn prices moving ahead after Wednesday's USDA numbers, which include a monthly Crop Production report that's expected to show a struggling Plains winter wheat crop. Above 824 million and expect a bearish response, says Greg Wagner, President, GWX Ag Advisors.

"Right now, you're looking at corn ending stocks being 824 million bushels, up substantially from 632 million bushels carrying in the March report. That's going to come in the form of feed and residual use," Wagner said Tuesday. "To the extent USDA brings that into the balance sheet is going to determine really what the ending stocks number is right now. On the demand side of the equation, both for ethanol grind and exports, it'd be premature for USDA to lower either estimate, so those will be essentially unchanged." 

See a full preview table for Wednesday's WASDE report

The range of trade estimates heading into Wednesday's numbers is wider than normal, with the highest guess coming in at 925 million bushels, one Wagner says would "be pretty shocking." For soybeans, the trade's calling for domestic stocks of around 137 million bushels, witih anything larger than 140 million casting a bearish tone over the soybean pit moving forward. Recent history gives reason to think that there shouldn't be much, if any, surprise to Wednesday's soybean supply figure, says Jerry Gidel, Chief Feed Grain Analyst, Rice Dairy.

"Last fall, we had an abnormally low stocks number versus expectations, and there was talk maybe we overestimated the crop then, and now there's this number here," Gidel said Tuesday. "I think we had a huge amount in export channels. I don't anticipate much change in carryover stocks. Should be somewhat of a stabilizing situation when we get those stocks numbers tomorrow."...MORE

Corn $6.4450 up 1.75 cents; Wheat $7.1100 down 3.25; Soybeans $13.9525 unch.