From Bloomberg 3April13:
On Friday they had a a carve-out for oil:Commodities supercycle is “probably” over and prices are unlikely to match their performance over the past decade, according to UBS AG.Growth in China is slowing and becoming less commodity- intensive, London-based strategists Stephane Deo and Ramin Nakisa wrote in a report dated yesterday. The bull cycle for commodities and company profits may also be over because cheap supply of labor in China and Eastern Europe has now been absorbed, they wrote.
UBS cut industrial metals to neutral after a “wrong” recommendation to go long in September and adding to the position at the start of 2013, according to the report. While commodity prices could see some gains in the near future, a recovery would be limited and short-lived, the bank said....MORE
Citigroup Raises 2013 Oil Outlook, Sees Commodity ‘Death Bells’
Citi has been the most vociferous on the commodities inflection point, publishing, in addition to the "dirt on the grave" report, this one from November 2012: "Commodities Climb to 4-Week High As Citigroup Calls the End of the Commodities Supercycle". Even earlier was Morgan Stanley's head of emerging markets, Ruchir Sharma, in a Financial Times Op-ed from June 2012:
We should celebrate the end of the commodity supercycle
The daily news about falling oil prices is the beginning of a major shift in the global economy: the end of the “commodity supercycle”, the idea that the rise of emerging markets led by China would continue to drive up prices for oil and other commodities, from copper to corn. Its end spells trouble for the many companies and countries, such as Brazil and Russia, that have prospered in the past decade from the sale of raw materials to China. It also spells relief for commodity importing countries, from the US to Turkey....We've visited with Mr. Sharma a few times:
...A sharp decline in commodity prices boosts western economies that spend heavily on importing raw materials, and frees capital to flow to more productive industries. It would not be surprising if US technology again becomes the mania of the next decade – mirroring the 19th century, when the US had two railroad booms in three decades. The end of the oil bubble could set up a tech comeback.
July 2012
Two Wildly Disparate Sources: Commodity Boom Over
May 2012
Repost--I Bet Poland is Glad it Hasn't Adopted the Euro
