Wednesday, April 17, 2013

Oh Great. Now We've Got a Hindenburg Omen Sighting

From Investor Verlag (Tuesday):

Goldaktien im freien Fall
in den vergangenen Tagen haben wir einen als klassisch zu bezeichnenden Ausverkauf geseheen. Nein, nicht nur bei Gold und den anderen Edelmetallen. Seit gestern haben wir auch für die US-Aktienmärkte ein Hindenburg-Omen vorliegen....
Even if you don't speak the language of love, the meaning is pretty clear: "Gold in free-fall but it's not just gold, since yesterday we have a Hindenberg Omen in U.S. markets."

From ZeroHedge which I sometimes have trouble translating:

We Have A Hindenburg Omen Sighting
Remember when the last time a cluster of Hindenburg Omens nearly toppled the market in August 2010 and the only saving grace was Ben Bernanke's QE2 announcement at Jackson Hole which sent risk soaring? Today, nearly three years later, we got the first instance of the Omen again. Will it be a one-off fluke, or a cluster, which is needed to confirm this dreaded technical formation? Stay tuned in the coming days to find out...

The last cluster was Aug 2010 (and was only saved by Bernanke), the previous cluster was Oct 2007 and we know what followed... (red bars are Hindenberg Omens)

Full details of construction here.
During the HO washout in 2010:
Thanks Alphaville: "Testing the Hindenberg Omen"
Although CXO Advisory is one of our 1300 feeds and one I try to get to at least twice a week I somehow missed this. FT Alphaville didn't.
First CXO goes through the methodology of their test, in-depth as always, then:

...In summary, evidence from simple tests of a publicly available set of “confirmed” Hindenburg Omens suggests the possibility of usefulness, but reservations regarding small sample size and potential sample bias are strong.
The vivid image evoked by the name may be an important factor in media attention to the Hindenburg Omen.
Gee, d'yuh think?

FT Alphaville also directs us to an interesting story of attempted 'corners'....