Thursday, April 11, 2013

Individual Investors Are WAAAY Too Bearish for a Market Top

You don't see a lot on sentiment indicators on this blog for one main reason. I'm biased against them for being timewasters. Up until the 1970's they still had predictive value but as more and more managers began to use them their utility plummeted. Does anyone compute odd-lot ratios anymore?

Some practitioners argue that you have to be aware of them because everyone else is aware of them, an argument I've used for some aspects of technical analysis; you want to know where the 50-day moving is because that's the one people (and some computers) watch. Again though, the predictive value has declined to coin-flip territory.
The extremes on the other hand....
From Bespoke Investment Group:

Bulls Move To The Endangered List
Sometimes you see an update to an indicator and the only thing you can do is scratch your head.  That is exactly what happened this morning when we saw the latest update to the weekly sentiment survey from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII).  According to this week's survey, bullish sentiment was nearly cut in half from 35.5% down to 19.3%!  As shown in the chart below, this represents the lowest reading of the entire bull market.  Outlier readings like this make us wonder whether or not there was an error with the release, but if true it is yet another example of how investors are still anything but all in.