Here are the current model runs from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center:
and the diagnostic discussion:
| issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society |
| 7 June 2012 |
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch
|
Synopsis: There is a 50% chance that El Niño conditions will develop during the second half of 2012.
ENSO-neutral
conditions prevailed in May 2012, following the dissipation of La Niña
in April. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are currently near average
across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and above-average in the
far eastern Pacific (Fig. 1). The Niño 4 and Niño 3.4 indices were near zero during most of May, while the Niño 3 and Niño 1+2 indices remained positive (Fig. 2).
The oceanic heat content (average temperature in the upper 300m of the
ocean) anomalies became more strongly positive in May (Fig. 3), as above-average sub-surface temperatures became established across most of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific (Fig. 4).
The low-level trade winds and convection over the central equatorial
Pacific were near average during May, although convection remained
enhanced over portions of the western Pacific (Fig. 5). Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric patterns indicate ENSO-neutral conditions.
The extensive
volume of above-average sub-surface water temperatures indicates that
the tropical Pacific SST anomalies will likely warm further in the
coming months. A majority of models predict ENSO-neutral to continue
through the June-August (JJA) season (Fig. 6).
Thereafter, most of the dynamical models predict El Niño to develop
during JAS, while the statistical models tend to favor the continuation
of ENSO-neutral.
|
...MORE
The IRI's chance of El Niño by Aug-Oct, which was pegged at 46% in the April report is now up to 54%:
| Season | La Niña | Neutral | El Niño |
|---|---|---|---|
| MJJ 2012 | 3% | 84% | 13% |
| JJA 2012 | 4% | 59% | 37% |
| JAS 2012 | 4% | 48% | 48% |
| ASO 2012 | 4% | 42% | 54% |
| SON 2012 | 4% | 41% | 55% |
| OND 2012 | 4% | 43% | 53% |
| NDJ 2013 | 3% | 45% | 52% |
| DJF 2013 | 4% | 50% | 46% |
| JFM 2013 | 4% | 53% | 43% |
Probabilistic ENSO prediction archive
ENSO diagnostics & prediction info archive
