Tuesday, June 12, 2012

Ag Dept. Surprises Analysts With UNCH Forecast; Futures Not UNCH, Corn and Wheat Spanked

Corn is down 1.65%, wheat (Chi) down 1.90%.
From Farmland Forecast:

WASDE: Corn Balance Sheets Remain Unchanged
The USDA projected corn balance sheets as unchanged in June, a slight surprise to analysts as they estimated a reduction in supplies due to dry weather in the corn belt. Soybean and wheat supplies were decreased slightly, in line with analysts' expectations. Today marked the first time the Chicago Board of Trade was open during the WASDE's 7:30AM CT release time.


Projected U.S. 2012/13 supplies, production, and use were unchanged this month. 2012/13 ending stocks remained at 1.88 billion bushels. The 2011/12 and 2012/13 projected range for season-average corn prices was unchanged and remain $5.95 to $6.25 and $4.20 to $5.00, respectively.

U.S. corn usage to produce ethanol in 2011/12 was projected 50 million bushels higher, reflecting recent ethanol trade and production data. Corn exports were projected to decline by 50 million bushels as sales and shipments fell below previous estimates. 2011/12 U.S. corn ending stocks remained at 851 million bushels.

Global coarse grain supplies in 2012/13 were estimated to increase 4.8 million tons due to increases in corn production and beginning stocks. 2012/13 global corn beginning stocks were increased by 1.6 million tons on higher production from Brazil and China in 2011/12.

The USDA's unchanged balance sheet for corn came as a surprise to analysts who predicted a decrease in supplies. We will keeping a close eye on the weather patterns in the Corn Belt as continuing drought would have an adverse effect on production and supply....MORE
HERE's the USDA's WASDE page.