Sunday, May 6, 2012

"In Greek elections, voters reject pro-bailout parties"

Now what?
From the Washington Post:

Greeks went to the polls Sunday to cast away a decades-old political order, dealing a major defeat to backers of an international bailout that has brought crushing austerity to the country.

A cacophony of new voices will have their say in Parliament after a majority of Greeks rejected the two pro-bailout political parties that have dominated the country’s government since the fall of the dictatorship almost 40 years ago, according to an exit poll released after voting stations closed. A weak coalition government between the remnants of those major parties may be the result, analysts say, but its flexibility — and legitimacy — to push further painful austerity measures on the Greek people is likely to be tightly constrained....MORE
From ZeroHedge:

First Official Greek Exit Polls: Pro-Bailout Parties Plunge; Anti-Bailout Radical Left, Neo-Nazis Soar
As we expected, the previous unofficial poll forecasts were total rubbish, and according to exit polls from NET TV, the results are as follows:
  • New Democracy: 17-20%
  • Pasok: 14-17%
  • In a stunner, Syrizia, or the coalition of the radical left - a vehement anti-Bailout party - gets more votes than the ruling PASOK party: 15.5%-18.5%
  • Independent Greeks: 10-12%
  • Finally, and not surprisingly in the aftermath of the French results, the ultra right Golden Dawn gets 6-8% of the vote and will make it into Parliament
Visually from Athens News:
Tallied across, up to 60% of the new parliament will be anti-bailout (at least according to exit polls), and hence "Domino toppling." Good luck with that pro-bailout coalition government....MORE
Finally, from Sturdy Blog:
In case it’s all Greek to you
The Greek election has huge implications for the rest of Europe. Here is a short explanation.
According to the exit polls (compiled by Singular Logic for the daily newspaper “Kathimerini”), seven parties are set to enter Parliament with the following number of seats:
NEA DIMOKRATIA – the centre-right party; broadly pro-austerity (109 seats)
SYRIZA – a coalition of radical left party; anti-austerity (50 seats)
PASOK – the centre-left party; broadly pro-austerity (42)
INDEPENDENT GREEKS – a right-wing newly formed party; think UKIP; anti-austerity (32)
KKE – the communist party; anti-austerity (26)
CHRISI AVGI – the far-right party; think BNP; anti-austerity (22)
DIMAR – social democratic party; anti-austerity (19)

This creates some tantalising possibilities.
- The most likely is the centre-left and centre-right forming a very delicate coalition with a majority of 1 seat (151 of 300). Defections are common these days in Greek politics and this could be incredibly fragile.
- The centre-right switching to an anti-austerity stance and forming a coalition with other right-wing and far-right players (163 of 300).
- The centre-left switching to an anti-austerity stance and leading an anti-austerity coalition (without the far-right) (169 of 300).
And, of course, if the exit poll estimates are even a fraction off, the picture gets even murkier. ..