Wednesday, May 16, 2012

CORRECTED--Follow up On Last Year's Ira Sohn Hedge Fund Stock Picks: "Absolutely Abysmal"

Correction: It appears that ZeroHedge made a simple math error and didn't get the sign right on the Kynikos picks.
The declines in Vestas and First Solar would be a big + for the portfolio as the names were presented as shorts.
There is no way that an equal-weighted portfolio sums to -50% with only a handful of the issues losing more than 50%. The original Absolute Return+Alpha piece did not make the -50% claim.
I'm too tired to fire up the big computer to get the exact number but wanted to point this out before I drag my butt out of here.
Good night.
Original post:
Lifted in toto from ZeroHedge:
Today begins the 17th annual pilgrimage of hedge-funders near and far to the Ira Sohn conference, where some of the "best and brightest" share their top picks with everyone else in an attempt to generate a buying (or shorting) frenzy and more hedge fund hotel traps. Sadly, this is what to many passes for alpha these days. Yet does the Ira Sohn conference actually lead to any outperformance? Well, Absolute Return has compiled the 1 year return of the recommended investments from last year's conference. The results are absolutely abysmal. Which makes us wonder if the time of groupthink has peaked, and instead the time to fade absolutely everything to come out of such conferences, where analysts pretend to do homework by piggybacking on others' often times very, very wrong research, and which confuse beta expansion with alpha, has come.

Behold the results which would have caused an equal-weighted portfolio of all picks to lose at least 50% in the past year.