Tuesday, July 12, 2011

Informa Slightly Lowered Corn Estimates Ahead of Today's USDA Supply/Demand Estimate 'fireworks show'; Speculative Longs Pray for Heatwave

Expectations are for bearish numbers.
From AgriMoney:
America's corn harvest is to set a record, if not by as much as had been expected, Informa Economics said, as investors prepared for a set of US data billed as a "fireworks show".
Informa, whose estimates are seen as among the most influential from private analysts, pegged the US corn harvest at a little under 13.8bn bushels, nearly 700m bushels ahead of the all-time high set two years ago.
The figure was 130m bushels below Informa's last estimate. However, it remained nearly 600m bushels ahead of the estimate in last month's flagship US Department of Agriculture Wasde briefing.
USDA analysts are to unveil fresh crop figures on Tuesday in the light of their revelation last week that America's farmers sowed far more corn than had been thought, with inventories left over from last week's harvest are bigger than had been thought too – estimates which sent prices tumbling.
Given the number of variables to predict, including a boost to exports prompted by the lower prices, Tuesday's data is viewed by many analysts as particularly difficult to predict.
"The Wasde report on Tuesday will be a fireworks show for sure so do not get ahead of yourself today," Matthew Pierce at PitGuru said....MORE

Heatwave concerns overshadow key US crop report

Fears for a heatwave could yet underpin corn prices even if US officials, in a much-anticipated report, hike estimates for domestic inventories near to the psychologically important 1bn-bushel mark.
Orthodox thinking suggests that Tuesday's US Department of Agriculture Wasde report, detailing estimates for world crop supply and demand, will usher in a period of weaker prices "heading into harvest" this autumn, Drax Wedermeyer at US Commodities said.
"It is expected to be a bearish report because of the increased acres," he said, after the USDA two weeks ago hiked its forecast for corn sowings, besides finding more stocks left over from the last harvest than had been expected.
The consensus forecast is for the USDA to lift its estimate for America's corn inventories by 175m bushels to 905m bushels at the close of current season.
For the close of 2011-12, analysts on average expect a 300m-bushel rise to 994m bushels in the stocks estimate, although many expect a higher figure.
"It's not difficult to get above 1bn bushels, and then in a sneeze you have doubled the carryout," Mike Mawdsley at broker Market 1 said.
Heat dome 
However, the report is being overshadowed by a heatwave which has already hit crops in southern states, sending the proportion of crops rated "good" or "excellent" in Texas, as of Sunday, standing at 13%, down by four points over the previous week....MORE

Here's the WASDE site, we'll have more after the 8:30 a.m. (EDT) release