Monday, April 4, 2011

"Will Glencore be the Blackstone IPO of the Commodity Rally?"

Regular readers have probably gotten tired of comments such as:
Stocks are either for buyin' or for sellin'.
Combined with the Glencore IPO I may be moving from the center of the dance floor to a spot a bit closer to the exits sometime next year....
from our Dec. 6 post "Private Equity: Carlyle Set to File for IPO as Investors Grow Wary of Buyouts" or January's "How Dysfunctional Is This Market? (SPY; XLF)":
....Most of the proceeds the primary dealers receive from the Fed for the QE2 purchases are going back into frontrunning the Fed (see "Is QE2 A Stealthy $90 Billion Gifting Scheme To The Primary Dealers?" (BAC; C; GS; MS; JPM; HSB; UBS)) quite a bit is also going toward levitating the AAPL's of this market.

What I'm saying is: the dance will go on for a while longer but you may want to show off your sweet moves a little closer to the fire door. 
So I am going to entertain the idea that I am wrong, that the Glencore IPO doesn't mark the top in equities.
It marks the top in commodities.
Here's the Reformed Broker:
Blackstone's 2007 IPO didn't create the top for the private equity / leveraged buyout orgy but it's coming marked the top almost perfectly.

The deal was obsessed about on financial television for months, every detail of who was making how much got its own segment.  And then BX opened with a resounding thud.  The stock opened over the summer at 36, dropping to 20 by the end the year.  "Sold to you" said Darth Schwartzman from beneath his black-shrouded hood.  A year later $BX was trading at less than 5 bucks a share.

I bring this up because I am increasingly growing bored of the all-commodity, all-the-time, one-way bull market everyone's obsessed with.  I'm thinking that, as sexy as the commodity story is long-term owing to demographics and globalization, at some point soon everyone's going to get their asses kicked....MORE
See also last Tuesday's "Private Equity IPO: Après Apollo, Le Déluge! (APO)" and March 3rd's "Glencore IPO End Game Nears, Could Be Worth an Average $250 Million to Top Staffers".
Here's another:
"Special Report -The biggest company you never heard of" (Glencore)