Thursday, March 3, 2011

Stratfor: "Russia will cease to exist by 2020"

From Smart Economy:
George Friedman, director of a formally private intelligence analysis organization, Stratfor, which is funded by the Pentagon and several large U.S. corporations, predicts that Russia will cease to exist by 2020.
According to forecasts of Stratfor, Central Asia will, for some time, return to the Russian sphere of influence - especially because "the U.S. cannot strengthen its positions in in the region due a Russian pressure", but Russia will fall apart by 2020.

In the mid-decade, Friedman suggests a new Cold War could be started that wouldn't require any major efforts from the United States.

A rapid decline in population, borders moved almost to Moscow and St. Petersburg and the problems in the Caucasus will lead to "Russia's collapse without any war" as it was in 1917 and again in 1991.
Russia's collapse will lead to a chaos in Eurasia, the disintegration will touch not only Russia but other countries of the former Soviet Union, as well as a regionalization of China.

"From the U.S. point of view, the chaos in Eurasia would be an excellent solution. Eurasia would become "a haven for poachers". The countries on the periphery of Eurasia, will have an exceptional opportunity for an invasion on foreign territories"....MORE

Kavkaz also picked up the Stratfor piece. Kavkaz is very pro-Chechen. I don't know enough about the politics of the region to know who has the moral high ground in the wars with Russia.
I do know that Kavkaz was all for the mass murder of the school children at Beslan.
From Kavkaz:


George Friedman, director of a formally private intelligence analysis organization, Stratfor, which is funded by the Pentagon and several large U.S. corporations, predicts that Russia will cease to exist by 2020.

According to forecasts of Stratfor, Central Asia will, for some time, return to the Russian sphere of influence - especially because "the U.S. cannot strengthen its positions in in the region due a Russian pressure", but Russia will fall apart by 2020. 
In the mid-decade, Friedman suggests a new Cold War could be started that wouldn't require any major efforts from the United States.
 
A rapid decline in population, borders moved almost to Moscow and St. Petersburg and the problems in the Caucasus will lead to "Russia's collapse without any war" as it was in 1917 and again in 1991. ...MORE