Projected Global Supply Of Rare Earths In 2015 and Beyond (MCP; REE)

If you are into such things this is definitely worth a bookmark.
From Technology Metals Research:

Last weekend I posted an article on the issue of China becoming a net importer of rare earths by 2015 (in a nutshell: it’s possible that this might occur for heavy rare earths). I mentioned some numbers being used by Dr. Zhanheng Chen, Director of the Academic Department of the Chinese Society of Rare Earths (CSRE), in a presentation made on his behalf in Vancouver in January.

In the presentation, Dr. Chen forecast a total supply in 2013 of 87 kt from China, out of a total 134 kt of global supply. He also forecast a total global supply target after 2015, of 278 kt of rare earths, with the target for China’s production set at 100 kt of rare earths and 178 kt from other sources. In some quarters, this figure of 278 kt appears to have been misinterpreted as being a demand forecast from Dr. Chen, but this is not the case.

In January 2011, The Journal of Rare Earths published a paper by Dr. Chen [1], in which he details the origin of his projected supply targets for 2015 and beyond, for producers and potential producers outside of China (my thanks to Eamon Keane for making me aware of the paper). Here is a breakdown of his numbers:

Table 1: Current non-Chinese sources of supply of rare earths, after Chen (2011)

Project	Location	Company	Current capacity (ktpa TREO)	Target capacity after 2015 (ktpa TREO)
Mountain Pass	USA	Molycorp	3	40
Kamasurt	RUS	Lovozersky Mining	3 – 4.4	15
Orissa / Tamil Nadu / Kerala	IND	Indian Rare Earths	0.1	10
	VNM	Toyota / Sojitz / Govt. Vietnam	1.8 – 2	> 2
Buena Norte	BRA	Indústrias Nucleares do Brasil	1.5	> 1.5
TOTAL			9.5 – 11	> 68.5

Table 2: Non-Chinese sources of supply of rare earths preparing to come on-stream, after Chen (2011)

Project	Location	Company	2011-2013 capacity (ktpa TREO)	Target capacity after 2015 (ktpa TREO)
Mount Weld	AUS	Lynas Corp	10.5	21
Steenkampskraal	ZAF	Great Western Minerals Group / Rareco	3	5
	KAZ	Sumitomo / Kazatamprom	3	15
Dong Pao	VNM	Toyota / Sojitz / Govt. Vietnam	0.3	5
Orissa	IND	Toyota / Indian Rare Earths	5	10
Pitinga	BRA	Mitsubishi / Neo Material Technologies	0.5	1
Dubbo	AUS	Alkane Resources	2.6	6
TOTAL			24.9	63

Table 3: Other potential Non-Chinese sources of supply of rare earths, after Chen (2011)

Project	Location	Company	2011-2013 capacity (ktpa TREO)	Target capacity for 2015 (ktpa TREO)
Nechalacho	CAN	Avalon Rare Metals	0	5
Strange Lake	CAN	Quest Rare Minerals	3	5
Bokan-Dotson	USA	Ucore Rare Metals	0	0
Kipawa	CAN	Matamec Explorations	0	0
Nolans Bore	AUS	Arafura Resources	10	20
Hoidas Lake	CAN	Great Western Minerals Group	3	5
Bear Lodge	USA	Rare Element Resources	0	0
Kutessay II	KGZ	Stans Energy	0	0
Kvanefjeld	CAN	Greenland Minerals & Energy	0	10
TOTAL			13	40

Table 4: Total potential non-Chinese sources of supply of rare earths, after Chen (2011)

Category	Near-term capacity (ktpa TREO)	Target capacity for 2015 & beyond (ktpa TREO)
Current non-Chinese sources	9.5 – 11	> 68.5
Non-Chinese sources preparing to come on-stream	24.9	63
Other potential non-Chinese sources	13	40
TOTAL	47.4 – 48.9	> 171.5

...MORE