Misjudge the politics and you can get wiped out by fiat. Misjudge the emotion and you can have dead money until memories fade, sometimes a generational thing, witness gold from January 1980 to March 2001.
That said, I'm pretty sure that somewhere in Shanghai or Beijing someone is running some numbers right now.
Maybe I'm just bugged by the declarative in the sub-head.
Commentary: One disaster cannot destroy an entire industry
All eyes are on Japan’s nuclear energy crisis this week — and with good reason. The explosions at the Fukushima power plant and the threat of a nuclear meltdown are horrifying enough. The fact these events come in the wake of a massive earthquake that killed thousands and left millions without electricity makes the situation even more compelling....
Scarce worldwide uranium supplies mean Canada’s Cameco Corp. (CCJ 30.97, -1.60, -4.91%) will always have a valuable product. Cameco is a leader in the exploration and mining of uranium for sale to nuclear power producers worldwide. CCJ stock sold off dramatically this week, down 18% as of this article’s deadline, and is off 25% since Jan. 1. But the company is projected to see earnings per share grow 30% in 2011, and an additional 22% in 2012. If and when the world becomes more reliant on nuclear energy, you can bet Cameco is going to play a starring role. The company had just set a new 52-week high in February after an 80% run for the stock since last summer, so clearly there was momentum behind Cameco before the recent disaster in Japan.
A smaller but domestic uranium provider is the United States Enrichment Company, now known as USEC Inc. (USU 4.20, -0.16, -3.67%) . The Energy Policy Act of 1992 allowed the sale of enrichment plants to USEC in order to create a company that would provide uranium for nuclear power generation. After its IPO, USEC crashed about 50% in a year — and barring a brief pop in 2007 and a sharp drop following the financial crisis, hasn’t really shown much action since that initial flop.
The company is much less established than Cameco and struggled to turn just a small profit in 2010. But 2010 also brought a big $200 million investment from Toshiba Corp. (TOSBF 4.16, -0.39, -8.57%) and Babcock & Wilcox Co. (BWC 30.13, -0.69, -2.24%) — a sign that nuclear heavyweights have faith in the company. USEC shares are off about 31% year-to-date, but gained over 50% across 2010 — four times the broader market. This is an aggressive buy, but one that could pay off big in the long-term if nuclear power becomes more widespread. Read about four Japanese recovery investments on InvestorPlace.com. ...MORE