Wednesday, March 9, 2011

Black swans flying all over the region warns top Abu Dhabi royal family advisor (VXX; VXZ; VIX)

From Arabian Money:

There is a whole flock of black swans flying over the region at the moment, top Abu Dhabi royal family advisor and veteran regional analyst Matein Khalid told delegates to the Hedge Funds World Middle East conference in Dubai yesterday.

He is betting on the VIX uncertainty index as his alpha play, and also investing in the Russian oil companies Lukoil, Rosneft and Gazprom. His forecast is for a volatile few months ahead in financial markets.
Mr Khalid is worried about the five to six million barrels per day that Saudi Arabia is supposed to have in spare capacity, and noted that assessments provided by Wikileaks suggested that it would take 10 years for the kingdom to produce 12 million barrels per day. He saw two million barrels per day as a more realistic assessment of global spare capacity.

Spare capacity low
‘What happens if we have supply disruptions in Iran or Algeria, or Iraq which now produces 2.5 million barrels per day?’ he said. ‘Algeria had a horrible civil war in the 90s with hundreds of thousands killed....MORE 
Also at Arabian Money:
Arab unrest and global financial outlook leave Dubai the world’s cheapest bourse