This is a repost from April 2010. At that time we'd had the following big quakes:
January 12 Haiti 7.0
February 27 Chile 8.8
April 4 Baja Mexico 7.2
April 14 China 6.9
Things haven't really quieted down very much, here's the 2011 list from the USGS.
And here's the repost:
Always remember that earthquakes can be tricky for equity analysts.
From August 08's "Long-time bear joins bulls: Controversial Joe Granville says Dow could rise 800 points":
From KING5TV (Seattle):Joseph Granville doesn't use the word ''forecasting.'' He prefers to say that he applies to the stock market a ''theory'' that he declines to reveal but whose results he communicates to clients in a weekly investment newsletter.
Last week, as his latest bullish issue was still in the mails, Mr. Granville's theory suddenly turned bearish and advised selling. That advice, transmitted to about 3,000 clients in emergency telephone calls, triggered a selloff that drove the Dow Jones industrial average down 23.80 points and resulted in a new one-day volume record on the New York Stock Exchange. The next day, Mr. Granville predicted an earthquake of Richter magnitude 8.3 would hit Los Angeles in May.
From the New York Times:
NOTES ON PEOPLE; As a Seismologist, He's a Good Stock Analyst
In the last 100 years, there are three periods where super earthquakes spiked. We're in the middle of one now. In fact, the magnitude 8.8 Chilean quake on Feb. 27 is ranked by the U.S. Geolgoical Survey as the fifth largest earthquake recorded since the year 1900. The 2004 quake that hit off the coast of Northern Sumatra at magnitude 9.1 ranks third.HT: Smart Economy who adds:
The U.S.G.S. says in the last century there are three great periods of large subduction zone quakes where the ocean floor is forced under a nearby continent. Those 20-year periods range between 1905 and 1925, 1950 and 1965 and 2004 to present. The two largest quakes ever recorded came in the middle, the 1960 9.5 quake in Chile ranks No. 1 and the 9.2 that hit Alaska in 1964 is No. 2.
Are we next?
"There does seem to be some concern," said John Vidale, the head of the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network. "There do seem to be some decades when there are more earthquakes than other decades."
That does not mean we are next. The last big quake of this type to hit here occurred in January of the year 1700, and is estimated to range between an 8.8 and a 9.2.
Vidale comes to Seattle from Southern California, where he studied the San Andreas Fault, and looked at how earthquakes can transfer stress to other faults. The southern end of the San Andreas just south of the U.S. border saw the latest big shaker, a magnitude 7.2 that killed at least two people and damaged buildings. It could have been worse, if it hadn't been for the fact that the quake was centered in a rural area.
"We'd love to know which years are dangerous and which years aren't," said Vidale....MORE
....So I’ve plotted the major earthquakes (8.0+ to 9.5 M) to see if there is a fitThe 15-20 years mega earthquake cycle that repeats every 25-30 years (+8.0 to + 9.5 M) 39 quakes in total
- all of the +9.0 M mega-earthquakes occur in on-cycle years
- More 8,5 to 9.0 M quakes occur in on cycle years vs off cycle1905-1925 Mega Earthquake Cycle (20 year duration)1906 01 31 - Off the Coast of Esmeraldas, Ecuador - M 8.81923 02 03 - Kamchatka - M 8.51922 11 11 - Chile-Argentina Border - M 8.51905 07 09 - Mongolia - M 8.41903 08 11 - Southern Greece - M 8.31908 12 12 - Off the Coast of Central Peru - M 8.21906 08 17 - Valparaiso, Chile - M 8.21920 06 05 - Taiwan region - M 8.01907 10 21 - Qaratog, Tajikistan - M 8.01950-1965 Mega Earthquake Cycle (15 year duration)1952 11 04 - Kamchatka - M 9.01960 05 22 - Chile - M 9.51964 03 28 - Prince William Sound, Alaska - M 9.21965 02 04 - Rat Islands, Alaska - M 8.71957 03 09 - Andreanof Islands, Alaska - M 8.61950 08 15 - Assam - Tibet - M 8.61963 10 13 - Kuril Islands - M 8.51958 11 06 - Kuril Islands - M 8.31966 10 17 - Near the Coast of Peru - M 8.11957 12 04 - Gobi-Altay, Mongolia - M 8.12004 - ? (2020-2024) Mega Earthquake Cycle2004 12 26 - Sumatra-Andaman Islands - M 9.12005 03 28 - Northern Sumatra, Indonesia - M 8.62010 02 27 - Offshore Maule, Chile - M 8.82007 09 12 - Southern Sumatra, Indonesia - M 8.52006 11 15 - Kuril Islands - M 8.32003 09 25 - Hokkaido, Japan Region - M 8.32009 09 29 - Samoa Islands region - M 8.12007 01 13 - East of the Kuril Islands - M 8.12007 04 01 - Solomon Islands - M 8.12004 12 23 - North of Macquarie Island - M 8.12007 08 15 - Near the Coast of Central Peru - M 8.02006 05 03 - Tonga - M 8.02000 11 16 - New Ireland Region, Papua New Guinea - M 8.0Historic earthquakes that fit the Mega Earthquake Cycle pattern1821 07 10 - Camana, Peru - M 8.21668 08 17 - Anatolia, Turkey - M 8.01556 01 23 - Shensi, China - M 8.01850-1870 Mega Earhquake Cycle1868 08 13 - Arica, Peru (now Chile) - M 9.01855 01 23 - Wellington, New Zealand - M 8.01700-1720 Mega Earthquake Cycle1700 01 26 - Cascadia Subduction Zone M 9.0(US & Cdn west coast from California to Vancouver Island)....the last big one was in 1700 !! Geologic evidence shows that 13 mega earthquakes occured in the last 6,000 years, spread out between 200 and 800 years in duration....MORE