Wednesday, December 2, 2009

Pitfalls in Prognostication: Fortune Magazine's August, 2000 "Ten Stocks to Last the Decade"

The August 14, 2000 headline read:
10 Stocks To Last The Decade A few major trends will likely shape the next ten years. Here's a buy-and-forget portfolio to capitalize on them.
Bespoke Investment Group shows why amnesia may be solace:

...Investors can and do gain a lot of insight from outlook pieces, etc., but we feel that projecting out a decade is futile at best. We promise we won't be making any 2020 stock picks here at Bespoke!


From Bespoke's post "The Ugly Decade" which also follows up on a February, 2000 New York Times piece "BUSINESS; 10 Stocks for 2010: Buy-and-Hold Picks From Top Investors".

Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.
-Niels Bohr

See here for alternative attributions of the quote.