Friday, December 11, 2009

First Solar hits 50-Day Moving Average, Stops Dead (FSLR)

This morning FSLR traded up to $135.46 and stalled. It is currently trading at $133.48 up .54.
Here's the three month chart via Yahoo Finance:
Chart for First Solar, Inc. (FSLR)
We first mentioned the 50-day on Dec. 3:
The stock has traded through the 20 day moving average but the 50 day may be a "pause point".
Reiterated on the 4th and the 8th.
The reason I bring this up is the analyst webcast on Wednesday the 16th.
Companies don't use these occasions for breaking bad news so the expectation is they will lift the 2010 forecast, I've gone so far as to say I thought the stock could get to the top of the gap occasioned by the Oct. 28 earnings release, $151.58.

There is a fly in the ointment. FSLR has traded successively lower volume on each of the last six trading days, as it keeps bumping up against the SMA, currently at $135.16.

If it can't close above that level, and on dramatically higher volume, the $151 target is out the window and the webcast will supply a decent opportunity on the short side.
From that Dec. 8 post:
Here's the three month chart (from BigCharts) with the 50-day SMA. You'll note the stock is well into the gap from the last earnings report. I'd expect the stock to approach the top of the gap leading up to the analyst webcast on Dec. 16, aided by a tailwind from the hoopla in Copenhagen. The COP 15 meeting ends December 18. Then I am outta here....