Monday, March 9, 2009

Roubini on CNBC: Could be 36 Month Recession (but raises S&P target to 600)

From Calculated Risk:

From CNBC: Roubini: US Recession Could Last Up to 36 Months. A few excerpts and video:

"We could end up ... with a 36-month recession, that could be "L-shaped stagnation, or near depression," Roubini said. He puts the chance of a severe U-shaped recession at 66.7 percent, and a less severe L-shaped recession at 33.3 percent.
"We are in the 15th month of a recession," said Nouriel Roubini, a professor at New York University's Stern School of Business, told CNBC in a live interview. "Growth is going to be close to zero and unemployment rate well above 10 percent into next year.">>>MORE
And from ZeroHedge:
In a slightly less pessimistic statement today, Nouriel "Dr. Doom" Roubini said an S&P level of 500 "is less likely, but there is some possibility you get there" and put his S&P target at 600. Roubini's target is based on an S&P 2009 earnings of $50 and a 12x multiple. "My main scenario is that it is highly likely it goes to 600 or below" Roubini said in an interview at the CBOE Risk Management Conference in Dana Point (which one presumes did not have any Citigroup employees present).
“Even if you do everything right with fiscal and monetary policy, we’re still going to be in a recession through the end of this year and into next year,” Roubini said earlier during his speech at the options-industry conference. “The recession train left the station over a year ago, and it’s going to continue.”>>>MORE