(see also: post immediately below)
From the Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank:
A useful first guess about the future
spot price of a commodity is usually
found in its current futures price. But
it doesn’t work that way when the
commodity in question is oil. This
Commentary explains why the characteristics
of oil, particularly the
value it can offer its owner by
remaining in the ground, cloud the
information that oil futures prices
give about future oil prices.
Read it. Then we can talk.
4 page PDF
HT: Marc Shivers who reminded us.