Friday, September 4, 2009

Fannie, Freddie Avoid Delisting as Stocks Triple (FRE; FNM)

From Bloomberg:
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the mortgage-finance companies seized by U.S. regulators a year ago, avoided delisting on the New York Stock Exchange after their shares more than tripled last month.

The NYSE notified Freddie Mac yesterday that a review as of Aug. 31 showed its average share price for the preceding 30 trading days was above $1, meeting minimum listing requirements, according to a statement today from the McLean, Virginia-based company. Washington-based Fannie Mae said separately that it was also notified by the NYSE yesterday of its compliance.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac shares last week rose above $2 to their highest levels since the government forced the companies into conservatorship in September 2008 because of rising mortgage delinquencies. Fannie Mae was up 232 percent in August, while Freddie Mac surged 269 percent for the month.

FBR Capital Market’s Paul Miller said the rally was unjustified, and attributed the jump to short sellers and investor speculation about reverse stock splits.

“There is no fundamental value remaining in Fannie and Freddie, particularly since the government owns 80 percent of each company,” Miller, a banking analyst based in Arlington, Virginia, said in an Aug. 31 note to investors.

Under NYSE rules, if a stock’s 30-day average price falls below $1, the exchange sends a formal warning and gives the company six months to correct the deficiency. Freddie Mac, which peaked at $73.70 in December 2004, had closed at less than $1 on all but one day from Dec. 1, 2008, through Aug. 7, in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. Fannie Mae closed below $1 through the same period. The stock peaked at $87.81 in 2000....MORE

Barbra and Judy must be long (Happy Days are Here Again was introduced in the movie Chasing Rainbows):


Deutsche warn on the liquidation risk facing commodities (DXO)

From FT Alphaville:

The closure of Deutsche Bank’s Powershares DB Crude Oil Double Long exchange-traded-note this week sent a sizable ripple through both the exchange-traded products and commodities space.

For the commodity markets, specifically, the concern was how prices might react when the fund is forced to liquidate its positions on September 9.

Accordingly, it’s interesting to see that even Deutsche Bank’s own commodities research team appeared a tad concerned about the matter on Friday (H/T the FT’s Gregory Meyer). As the analysts wrote:

The implications of redeeming a fund could have interesting implications for commodity prices, forward curves and volatility. For example, assets under management of the DXO fund stand at roughly USD400m as of September 2. Since the ETN has a two-for-one exposure in the oil market, it has approximately USD800m invested in the WTI July 2010 futures contract. Assuming an oil price of USD68/barrel, this is equivalent to 11,750 futures contracts and consequently exceeds the position accountability levels governing the WTI sweet crude oil futures contract listed on NYMEX.

So essentially, in Deutsche’s opinion, a regulatory-inspired move aimed at curbing oil price volatility will, in the short-term at least, encourage more volatility, not less.

The analysts also keenly pointed out that in the long term, the new regulatory environment could, ironically, increase the appeal for investors to take delivery of commodities. As a result, what has tended to be a financial exposure to commodities might become more physical with, in their view, a more direct impact on commodity prices....MORE

Qaddafi proposes abolishing Switzerland

No, not the Onion.
This is from Foreign Policy's Passport blog:

A UN spokesman tells the Swiss News Agency that Libya submitted a proposal to the General Assembly calling for the dissolution of Switzerland last month. The proposal was never accepted or circulated because the U.N. Charter prohibits countries from threatening the existance of other member states.

In case you hadn't gotten the message, Qaddafi really hates Switzerland...MORE

America's Finest News Source is reporting:

Nation's Unemployment Outlook Improves Drastically After Fifth Beer

And:

Department Of Labor Spends $40 Billion To Create One Amazing New Job

Pfizer Launches 'Zoloft For Everything' Ad Campaign

Rare Centuple Play Ends Mets' Season

Solar crisis set to hit in 2010, 50% of manufacturers may not survive, says The Information Network

Better check those balance sheets boys and girls. From DigiTimes:

The solar industry is at a critical stage and 50% of existing solar manufacturers may not survive 2010, according to The Information Network.

The market research firm recently noted massive inventory buildup and huge overcapacity were having a serious impact on the solar panel industry and manufacturers, and Dr. Robert Castellano, president of The Information Network has now pointed out that inventory is averaging 122 days in 2009 versus 71 days in 2008. Capacity utilization dropped to 27.9% in 2009 from 48.0% in 2008.

A key reason is increased supply from China, which added an additional 1GW of capacity. The price per watt has now dropped to US$1.80 for polysilicon-based products, which is lower than the US$1.85 level The Information Network previously thought the industry would see at the end of 2009. By way of comparison, the average selling price in the third quarter of 2008 was US$4.05 per watt.

The Information Network doesn't expect other industry players to back down from increased competition from China. Other makers are expected to increase their capacities despite the low utilization rates in order to reach economies of scale and better compete against the Chinese. The market research firm expects the industry to see a 25.7% capacity utilization rate and 133 days inventory in 2010.

Average selling prices could drop below US$1 per watt in 2010 and US$0.50 in 2011. As many as 50% of the more than 200 solar manufacturers, mired in red ink with current selling prices above US$2.00 per watt, may not survive, The Information Network stated....MORE

HT: Tech Trader Daily

Molycorp May Invest $400 Million to Expand Rare-Earths Mine

This is what the Chinese are afraid of. They want to raise prices enough to enjoy monopoly margins but not so much that it becomes worthwhile to bring on non-Chinese production. From Bloomberg:

Molycorp Minerals LLC, the only U.S. producer of rare earths, may spend up to $400 million expanding output by more than nine times to meet rising minerals demand from makers of hybrid cars, computer chips and televisions.

The company, planning to expand output to around 20,000 metric tons, is seeking a supply agreement with a U.S.-based magnet producer, Chief Executive Officer Mark Smith said today in an interview.

“We will focus on supplying outside of China,” Smith said while attending a conference in Beijing. “From what we understand from our customers, demand for rare earths will far exceed the amount we plan to produce.”

Surging production of hybrid cars and music players such as Toyota Motor Corp.’s Prius and Apple Inc.’s iPod have driven up demand for rare earths. China, accounting for more than 90 percent of global rare-earth output, yesterday said supplies of two rare earths may not be enough to meet domestic consumption.

Molycorp will produce about 2,150 tons of rare earths this year including cerium, lanthanum, praseodymium and neodymium, according to a presentation by Smith. The company is backed by investors including Resource Capital Funds and Goldman Sachs Group, according to its Web site.

The Colorado-based privately held company will seek rare- earths deposits in Vietnam, Canada and Africa, Smith said....MORE

Call Trading Skyrockets on MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR)

The stock was recently up four cents. From Schaeffer's Investment Research:

Options traders jumped on MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR) calls on Thursday, as more than 14,000 bullish bets crossed the tape. This volume was more than double the stock's average daily call trading volume, according to data from WhatsTrading.com. In addition, 69.6% of the call volume traded at the ask price, indicating that most of the contracts were likely purchased.

Calls have been a favorite on the International Securities Exchange (ISE) recently. The exchange has reported 14.5 calls purchased to open for every one put purchased to open during the past 10 trading sessions. This ratio of calls to puts is higher than 98% of all those taken during the past year....MORE

Oil-trading software used to manipulate market

From the New York Times:

Inquiry Stokes Unease Over Trading Firms That Shape Markets

Its superfast, supersecret oil trading software was called the Hammer.

And if the Commodity Futures Trading Commission is right, the name fit well with an intricate scheme that allowed commodity traders in Chicago working for Optiver, a little-known company based in Amsterdam, to put their orders first in line and subtly manipulate the price of oil to the company’s advantage.

Transcripts and taped conversations of actions that took place in 2007, included in the commission’s case, reveal the secretive workings of high-frequency trading, a fast-growing Wall Street business that is suddenly drawing scrutiny in Washington. Critics say this high-speed form of computerized trading, which is used in a wide range of financial markets, enables its practitioners to profit at other investors’ expense.

Traders in the Chicago office of Optiver openly talked among themselves of “whacking” and “bullying up” the price of oil. But when called to account by officials of the New York Mercantile Exchange, they described their actions as just “providing liquidity.”

In July 2008, the commission charged Optiver with manipulating the price of oil; negotiations over a settlement continue.

In the cutthroat world of high-frequency trading, success is a function of speed, secrecy and often a bit of intrigue. Few have been more adroit at these arts than Optiver.

Optiver describes itself as one of the world’s leading liquidity providers, a trading firm that uses its own capital to make markets. It seeks to profit on razor-thin price differences — which can be as small as half a penny — by buying and selling stocks, bonds, futures, options and derivatives. (Derivatives represent about 65 percent of its business, equities 25 percent, and commodities and others make up the remaining 10 percent.)>>>MORE

Without Disasters It's Hard for Reinsurers to Raise Premiums

A couple weeks ago we linked to "Hurricane season better late than never for insurers (ACE; BRK.A; CB; TRV). And: Riding Naked Through the Storm" which focused on the property/casualty insurers. Today Bloomberg looks at the reinsurers:

Munich Re, Swiss Re May Struggle to Increase Rates
Munich Re and Swiss Reinsurance Co., the world’s largest reinsurers, may struggle to raise prices for property and casualty coverage next year as an absence of costly disasters and a stock-market rebound restrain demand.

Reinsurers, which help insurers such as Allianz SE shoulder risks, gather in Monte Carlo starting tomorrow to begin talks with customers over January contract renewals. Discussions will continue at an October meeting in Baden-Baden, Germany.

In the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June to November and can drive reinsurance rates, no major storm has hit the U.S. coast so far this year. In 2008, Hurricane Ike slammed into Texas in September, costing the insurance industry $20 billion and helping push up reinsurance rates by about 8 percent this year following a two-year decline.

“Reinsurers will find it hard to argue for major rate increases next year as the 2009 hurricane season has been extremely quiet,” said Markus Engels, who helps manage about $440 billion at Allianz Global Investors. “I would expect stable or slightly higher prices next year.”>>>MORE

Either Swiss or Munich, I've forgotten which, has proposed that western governments buy insurance for developing countries to insure against the projected effects of climate change. The suggested premium was $5 billion/annum. The insurance salesmen said it was a good buy at that price.

Thursday, September 3, 2009

Natural Gas ETF Put Option Trading Jumps to Record (UNG)

From Bloomberg:
Trading of bearish options on the U.S. Natural Gas Fund rose to a record as the fuel fell to a seven-year low and investors bet that the exchange-traded fund tracking gas futures will keep tumbling.

Volume for puts giving the right to sell the ETF rose to 220,165 contracts, or 2.6 times the four-week average, as options traders bought the contracts to protect from a further drop if the fund extends its 61 percent slide this year. Puts traded 1.4 times more than calls, which give the right to buy the shares.

The fund, known by its UNG ticker, lost 4.7 percent to $9.01, the lowest level in its two-year history. The most-active contracts were October $7 puts, which rose 52 percent to 35 cents and accounted for almost an eighth of put volume. Ninety- four percent of those puts traded on the ask price, which indicates that buyers initiated the transactions.

“The fact that the most activity is around such an out-of- the-money put means people are expecting an extreme down move in the UNG,” said Rebecca Cheong, an equity derivatives strategist at Societe Generale SA in New York. “There’s a lot of concern.”

Natural gas futures fell in New York to the lowest level since March 2002 after a government report showed stockpiles expanded more than average to a record for this time of year.

Supplies rose 65 billion cubic feet in the week ended Aug. 28 to 3.323 trillion cubic feet, the Energy Department said. Inventories are the highest for that week since the department began publishing data in 1993. Stockpiles typically gained 64 billion cubic feet for the period in the past five years.

Premium

The UNG has been trading at a premium to its underlying natural gas assets since Aug. 12, when it announced that it couldn’t issue new shares because of limits on how many natural gas contracts it can buy. Today, shares cost as much as 18 percent more than the value of the fund’s gas contracts....MORE

Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Rare-Earth Hi-Tech Co., Ltd. UP 10% Wednesday (600111: Shanghai)

Here's the six month chart, the stock is right at resistance, from Yahoo Finance:

Chart for IM BAOTOU STEEL RA 'A'CNY1 (600111.SS)





Here are some of the recent articles, first up, the Wall Street Journal:

China says it seeks business for Inner Mongolia
China's moves to tighten control on the mining and export of a class of metal ores called rare earth are aimed at attracting high-tech manufacturing to Inner Mongolia, and not at dominating the market, a senior Chinese official said.

Wednesday's comments by Zhao Shuanglin, vice chairman of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, appear aimed at quelling concerns that China is trying to dominate the global market for rare-earth resources, used in some environmentally friendly technologies. Rare-earth metals greatly improve batteries made for hybrid cars....

...China also is taking steps to consolidate its rare-earth industry. Mr. Zhao, who said he runs the region's industrial policy, said Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Rare Earth Hi-Tech Co. would lead that consolidation. The move is aimed at creating a group of rare-earth miners and processors in the region's western parts. Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Rare Earth's stock rose 7.6% in Shanghai trading Wednesday.

"Most of the consolidation is complete," Mr. Zhao said. "We want to build Baotou into an international rare earth production base."

Rare-earth resources haven't been well developed in major markets like the U.S., where rare-earth concentrates are significantly mined in only one deposit, in Mountain Pass, California.

Japanese firms including Sumitomo Corp. and Toyota Motor Corp. have already begun to develop alternative sources of rare earth in Kazakhstan and Vietnam....

From Bloomberg:

China Considers Rare-Earth Reserve in Inner Mongolia (Update2)
China, holder of the world’s largest rare-earths deposits, may build a strategic reserve in Inner Mongolia, strengthening its control over materials used in technology ranging from iPods to guided missiles.

Inner Mongolia, which contains 75 percent of China’s deposits, is in talks with the central government to build stockpiles to support prices, Zhao Shuanglian, deputy chief of the province, said at a press conference today in Beijing.

China, which imports most of its iron ore, oil and copper, is tightening control over supplies of rare earths, a range of more than 15 elements such as scandium and lanthanum. Shares in Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Rare-Earth Hi-Tech Co., the main producer in the province, surged 7.6 percent in Shanghai trading today after Zhao said the company will take over smaller rivals to consolidate the industry.

“The plan of building a national reserve stockpile is part of a government-level strategy to protect the resources of rare earths and prevent it from being sold cheaply,” Liu Minda, analyst at Huatai Securities Co., said by phone from Nanjing....

...Baotou Steel Rare-Earth rose 7.6 percent to close at 22.30 yuan in Shanghai after Zhao announced plans for mergers of rare- earth companies. The stock has tripled this year, compared with a 48 percent gain of the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index.

“The purpose of the consolidation is to use Baotou as the head of a conglomerate that can create a certain economy of scale in the industry,” Zhao said...

The Financial Times:

Fears China to tighten grip on rare minerals

...Foreign suspicions of Beijing’s plans for world domination of rare earths have been fed by comments from no less than Deng Xiaoping, the former Chinese leader who said in 1992 that while the Mideast had oil, China had rare earths.

But foreign and Chinese industry sources doubt Beijing’s dominant goal is to create an Opec-like price cartel. After flooding the world market with cheap rare earths for more than a decade, Beijing now wants to ensure that it has the materials it needs to feed its own growing ambitions to build advanced and green technology industries such as electric vehicles.

Inner Mongolia, which contains 75 per cent of China’s rare earth deposits, said earlier this week that it wanted to build a strategic reserve of rare earths to stabilise prices. It also wants to consolidate the local industry. The aim, according to Inner Mongolia officials, is to conserve reserves and attract more users to set up manufacturing plants in Inner Mongolia.

Rare earths have been sold too cheaply, and some traders have sold supplies illegally overseas, threatening domestic supplies and causing over-exploitation and environmental problems, according to an official of the Chinese Society of Rare Earths.

Just cutting production, without a strategic reserve to boost price, will be hard for central government, because that will hurt profits of some state-owned firms and local governments, analysts say....

Natural Gas: "Tread Carefully When Trading UNG"

From Minyanville:
The collapse of the natural gas market in the US has been breathtaking. And if you need anything else to worry about, United States Natural Gas (UNG) -- which is in the midst of a massive liquidation -- is selling at a premium somewhere in the neighborhood of 20% relative to the spot price of the commodity. Thus, the end to the carnage is not apparent....MORE
Followed by:

Five Reasons to Stay Cautious with UNG
I've had lots of questions on my article from yesterday, Tread Carefully When Trading UNG.
For now, I don't plan to do anything with this situation. There are several reasons for this.

1. I have no edge on the regulatory resolution of this.

2. Given the difficulty in shorting shares of United States Natural Gas (UNG) and the particularities in the futures market for natural gas (NG), implementing an arbitrage trade isn't easy.

3. Natural-gas producers are overvalued relative to the spot price. However, if you go out far enough on the futures curve, the overvaluation is still there, but becomes less severe. This contango makes the situation tricky. In theory, the value of producer stock prices should track the prices further out on the curve than the spot price. If the longer-dated prices for NG stay firm, the share prices of producers may not react much. In other words, despite the apparent disconnect between the spot price and the shares of producers, it's possible to argue that producer share prices may be behaving relatively efficiently (I'm trying to say that with a straight face)....MORE

Buffett Gets Deeper Into Housing and Real Estate (BRK-A, LUK, GS, CIT, HD, LOW, USG)

From 24/7 Wall Street:
Warren Buffett is positioning Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A) to profit when the housing and property market returns to more normal levels. Now, he is teaming up with what many investors consider a “Buffett rival.” Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A) is teaming up with Leucadia National Corp. (NYSE: LUK) to acquire the North American mortgage and servicing operations of Capmark Financial Group Inc. Interestingly enough, a company affiliated with Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway called HomeServices of America made a real estate firm acquisition in Chicago earlier this week.

The Capmark deal is said to be valued at roughly $490 million. Some may question this, but many believe a return is taking shape of at least some normalcy in the housing market. Capmark is said to be looking for a debt restructuring and also looking at options for its business holdings as it has discussed bankruptcy protection as a possibility. Bloomberg has made a reminder that Capmark is owned by firms including KKR & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS). Bloomberg reminded readers that Buffett agreed to buy a portfolio of loans on factory-built homes from CIT Group Inc. (NYSE: CIT) in 2008.

In the Koenig & Strey deal, that firm will retain its name and become a franchisee within Brookfield Residential Property Services’ North American real estate network of almost 30,000 real estate professionals. Koenig & Strey has approximately 900 agents located in 21 offices serving Chicago and the surrounding area. Its sales were $2.6 billion in 2008. The acquisition is the 21st for HomeServices, and it now has more than 15,000 real estate professionals and 21 companies operating in 20 states....MORE

Climateer Line of the Day: Correlation ≠ Causation Edition

From a comment on a Yahoo Finance Tech Ticker story:
For the 1st year of the President in years ending in 9 since 1865 returns for the next 3 months have a negative summation of % return... from the pivot table.... Sept: -17%, Oct: -22%, & Nov:-21%....
See Superbowl Indicator etc.
The article itself was interesting:

Avoid "Massively Overleveraged" Companies Like GE and Boeing, Analyst Says

...Bottom line: "Any company that basically assists its customers to buy its products using leverage is a company that we think has a broken business model in 2009-2010."

Two items worth noting here:

  • Ortel first made a bearish call on GE’s stock (and a bullish one on its credit default swaps) back in August 2007, long before problems at GE Capital were evident to most investors.
  • Neither Ortel nor his firm have positions in GE or Boeing stock, but their research is sold to hedge fund managers and other institutional investors who very well might.

No floor in sight for natural gas; prices plunge

UPDATE below.
Original post:
From the AP via Yahoo:
Natural gas prices plummet to seven-year lows; many will see huge cost cuts for heat

Natural gas prices tumbled again Thursday, hitting new seven-year lows after the government reported more supplies were put into storage as the entire country pares down on energy usage.

That will mean huge savings for a lot of people this winter when the heating bill arrives.

On Monday, Spokane, Wash.-based utility Avista Corp. said it wants to reduce natural gas prices for its Oregon customers to the lowest levels in five years. And in the Midwest, Alliant Energy Corp. and Wisconsin Public Service Corp. both predicted heating bills would drop around 20 percent.

"Any savings we get, they get," Alliant spokesman Scott Drzycimski said.

Natural gas for October delivery gave up 19 cents to $2.525 per 1,000 cubic feet on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices dropped as low as $2.50 per 1,000 cubic feet -- the lowest since March 2002 -- after the government reported that U.S. natural gas supplies grew again last week and are now nearly 18 percent above the five-year average.

Natural gas, a key energy source for power plants, has plummeted to less than a third the price it fetched last summer, and its contract on the Nymex gave up nearly 23 percent in the past six trading days....MORE

See also:

Aug 22: "Is it Time To Buy Natural Gas? Let's Look at The Charts"

...As you can see natural gas gets the worse grade possible. The pivot point for natural gas today is 3.12 and I have been calling for a target of 2.90. I know some pretty smart traders that have a 2.00 target on nat gas in the future

Aug. 22:

Has natural gas hit bottom? Not yet

Sep. 2:
Natural Gas: "Supply/Demand Won't Balance Until Second Half 2010"

UPDATE: Bloomberg is also on the story, with a lot of detail:

Natural Gas Tumbles to Lowest Since March 2002 on Supply Gain
Natural gas futures fell in New York to the lowest level since March 2002, after a government report showed stockpiles expanded more than average to a record for this time of year.

Supplies rose 65 billion cubic feet in the week ended Aug. 28 to 3.323 trillion cubic feet, the Energy Department said. Inventories are the highest for that week since the department began publishing data in 1993. Stockpiles typically gained 64 billion cubic feet for the period in the past five years.

“We’re well supplied and there’s so little demand,” said Michael Rose, director of trading at Angus Jackson Inc. in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. “Some people are starting to question the economic recovery and that adds more pressure to gas.”

Natural gas for October delivery fell 19.5 cents, or 7.2 percent, to $2.52 per million British thermal units at the 2:30 p.m. close of floor trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gas has declined 55 percent this year. Futures touched $2.50, the lowest since March 6, 2002.

Overall U.S. gas consumption may contract by 2.6 percent as the recession that began in December 2007 cuts demand, the Energy Department said in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook on Aug. 11.

Gas use at factories is forecast to tumble 8.6 percent this year because of the recession, the department said.

“People are beating up on natural gas because they can,” said Phil Flynn, vice president of research at PFGBest in Chicago. “Supplies are high, so they’re really pressuring the market to the downside.”

Weather Effect

Summer heat, which can increase demand for electricity from gas-fired power plants for air conditioning, is dissipating and there are no immediate threats from storms to output in the Gulf of Mexico, and that is weighing on futures, Flynn said....MUCH MORE

YES! More Negativity: "DEALWATCH: No Place In the Sun For Solar Makers" (TAN)

The Claymore/MAC Global Solar ETF is up $1.84%. From Dow Jones via NASDAQ:
Solar panel makers face dark times; the best that can be said is that a collapse in pricing at least brings solar technology costs down to where they become competitive without heavy subsidies.

Industry survivors will be those that vertically integrate, or in many Western firms' cases, accelerate outsourcing and concentrate on branding and client relationships - but even that will require a decent balance sheet.

The wild-card remains that large integrated tech firms with more robust finances step in to collect the wounded once the bloodbath ends.

Malaise

A supply glut from low-cost Asian players that is destroying margins and balance sheets is the root of the malaise.

This dismal state of affairs jars with solar's impressive volume growth. Globally, from 2002-2008 compound annual growth for panel shipments ran around 50% and would probably have been higher were it not for polysilicon supply bottlenecks, the raw material used to make solar cells.

That supply constraint triggered an aggressive capacity ramp-up across the production chain resulting in the pendulum swinging from apparently chronic undersupply to now rampant oversupply.

In 2007, annual manufacturing capacity was 5.5 gigawatts. By the end of 2009 it will be between 11.5-13 GW with further escalation into 2012, a consensus estimate of analysts suggests, with plant utilization at about 60%.

Polysilicon prices have collapsed to about $65 a kilogram from the $400/kg heyday seen in 2007 and 2008. This should be good for solar cell makers' input prices, but long-term supply contracts were reasonably common so the full benefit hasn't been fully felt.

Adding to woes, demand has dropped off after Spain curtailed solar tariffs and subsidies last year.

Storm

So this is as close as it gets to a perfect storm, one that should weed out the weak as overleveraged and inefficient makers wither....MORE

A similar story at Investopedia:

Solar Stocks Getting Burned

The solar stocks have been under pressure recently, with many threatening to break under key support levels. This was one of the groups that held promise as a new market leader with the election of President Obama and promises of energy independence. While the solars have experienced a few impressive rallies since the election, many are currently below election-time levels and are threatening to drop even lower.

The Claymore/MAV Global Solar Energy Index ETF (NYSE:TAN), which can be used as a proxy for the sector, is currently testing a critical level. TAN has been setting lower highs as it pulls back from its June high of $11.67. While technically TAN remains in a consolidation, some of the individual names in this space are already breaking down, which could be hinting at a failure for TAN to hold these levels.

Source: StockCharts.com

First Solar, Inc. (Nasdaq:FSLR) for instance, had a high volume gap in late June that ignited a nasty downturn. FSLR was looking much like TAN is currently, setting lower highs while remaining in a consolidation. However, FSLR broke under the consolidation and continues to freefall lower. While FSLR is probably ready for a corrective move higher, substantial damage has been done to this pattern, and it appears that FSLR is in a new intermediate downtrend. (For more, see Spotlight On The Solar Industry.)

Source: StockCharts.com

The chart for Energy Conversion Devices, Inc. (Nasdaq:ENER) looks even worse than the one for FSLR. ENER has been steadily setting lower highs and lower lows and recently broke under a base it had formed. This breakdown has led ENER to trade at multiyear lows. This breakdown is occurring on higher volume, so the picture is looking bleak for ENER....MORE

The Shape of Things to Come: "V Defies Economic Pessimists Seeing L, U, W"

We are partial to SocGen's Albert Edwards' contributions to the debate. Either "Société Générale: “We see a y-shaped global recession. We are going down before looping backwards”" or:
An Armenian K:
See full size image

From Bloomberg:

Commentary by Brendan Moynihan

Sept. 2 (Bloomberg) -- What shape will the U.S. economic recovery take: L, U, V, W, square root or maybe even Riemann’s zeta function?

Many economists and pundits, trying to explain why “it’s different this time,” are groping for new metaphors to explain their forecast for how the U.S. economy will emerge from recession.

Economists long ago gave us descriptions of L-shape recoveries (never happened), U-shape (also never happened) and the W-shape (happened once, for reasons explained below). The triple-U recently made it into the lexicon. And Societe Generale’s Albert Edwards served up the Armenian letter K in a June 4 report.

Commentators unwilling to be constrained by the letters of the Roman alphabet turned to symbols, in May giving us the character for “bank” (it resembles a sickle) used in the Pitman shorthand system for taking dictation. In an interview on Bloomberg Television with Scarlet Fu on July 7, Hans-Guenter Redeker, global head of foreign-exchange strategy at BNP Paribas SA, said the recovery will look like a “square root.” Bank of America Merrill Lynch, in an Aug. 17 report titled “The Shape of Things to Come” also used that symbol.

At the rate they are going, they’ll soon be using Riemann’s zeta function shape (a sort of spiral). Meanwhile, key economic indicators are defying them all with a V-shaped trajectory that typifies economic recoveries in the U.S.

Defying History

The new metaphors project stagnant growth for the next several years, breaking with all precedent in post-World War II recoveries. Business cycles differ in nuance, but all of them are cycles. And history shows that the deeper the decline, the stronger the V-shaped rebound....MORE

SCENARIOS: Re-shaping Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (FRE; FNM)

From Reuters:
A major mortgage association is urging lawmakers to transform troubled lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac into smaller, privately held companies that would issue mortgage securities with a government guarantee.

The proposal by the U.S. Mortgage Bankers Association is just one of a series of options that could be considered for Fannie and Freddie, which face major overhauls of their businesses after being seized by regulators worried the companies were near collapse.

Most observers expect Washington to scrap the model that put Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in the hands of investors but left the companies with a congressional mandate to lower the cost of homeownership.

The following scenarios, gleaned from comments by policy-makers and analysts, examine a number of possible options for the two mortgage lending giants.

FULL NATIONALIZATION

This might be the easiest option to implement and would return the companies to their origins as a government tool to nurture the housing market.

Shareholders only have had a stake in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac for about 40 years. Before that, the companies were fully owned and guaranteed by Washington.

Under the current conservatorship, which could last for years, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are effectively in government hands again. Policy-makers may choose to hold that status quo and formally eliminate investors' interest in the companies.

PRIVATIZATION WITH PAYMENT FOR INSURANCE

Policy-makers might return the companies to investors and offer to insure Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac investments.

Washington could charge the companies a fee to underwrite their debt and some of their mortgage securities as a way to nurture the housing finance sector without standing squarely behind the companies. This idea, aired by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, would be akin to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation's protection of banks.

COOPERATIVES WITH LOOSE GOVERNMENT TIES

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could be run by the companies that sell them home loans. In such a cooperative arrangement, Fannie and Freddie would focus on long-term, stable business rather than maximizing profits. The federal government might still offer to insure the companies against the most catastrophic losses....MORE

Carbon Trade: "EcoSecurities says in offer talks with another party" (ECO.L)

A follow-up to yesterday's "Carbon Trade: "EcoSecurities co-founder confident of bid success" (ECO.L)". From Reuters:
EcoSecurities Group Plc said it was in ongoing talks with another party for the possibility of a takeover offer after Swedish firm Tricorona decided not to bid for the Irish carbon offset company.

There can be no certainty that an offer or any other transaction will occur, EcoSecurities said in a statement.

The company continued to recommend that its shareholders take no action in response to the revised offer by Guanabara Holdings, set up by EcoSecurities co-founder and former president Pedro Moura Costa....MORE

Wednesday, September 2, 2009

Calculating the Clunkers’ Real Cost to Taxpayers

Reposted in toto from the Columbia Journalism Review's The Audit blog (column?):

Calculated Risk has a smart bit of economic analysis on the real cost to taxpayers of the Cash for Clunkers and housing-credit subsidies—calculations I haven’t seen anywhere else.

CR notes that the real economic benefits of the subsidies come only from the sales they spur over and above what would have occurred without them. Some lucky folks who were going to buy anyway will happily snap up the cash but they’re a wash. It’s impossible to determine these number for sure, but you can get a pretty good estimate by looking at previous months’ data.

For August, CR estimates Cash for Clunkers prodded an additional 320,000 car sales and calculates that the “cost to taxpayers per additional car sold” at $7,200. That looks a lot worse than the $4,170 per car number put out by the government.

Home sales are far worse:

With 1.9 million first-time buyers, the total cost of the tax credit will be $15.2 billion. Divide $15.2 billion by 350 thousand (CJR: the number of additional buyers), and the program cost $43.4 thousand per additional buyer.

Excellent work.

The press ought to learn from CR here and include this kind of analysis in its stories on these credits.

I won’t hold my breath.

Ethanol: "Brown-Forman profit rises after costs are cut" (BF.A BF.B)

Just kidding. I saw the stock on the percent up list and thought, "We haven't had an ethanol story in ages".
Our last Brown-Forman post was "Whiskey maker battles Tennessee drought":
...UPDATE: Never Mind.

"As most savvy drinkers are by now aware, Jack Daniel’s Old No. 7 is no longer with us."

"It has been knifed in the back by the greedy corporate clowns at Brown-Forman, the conglomerate that bought the Jack Daniel distillery in 1956. Mr. Daniel’s once excellent whiskey began life as a 90 proof liquor, but about 17 years ago the proof was lowered to 86. Now it has been lowered again, to a timid 80 proof. America’s best bourbon is now a ghost. "

From Modern Drunkard Magazine

Cap-and-trade is the spawn of Satan.
(see T3 tax below for one way we might go)
Here are some of the hits from a keyword search for Jack Daniels at MD:
  1. Modern Drunkard Magazine Online

    For the second time since the Brown-Forman Corporation acquired the distillery in 1956, they have lowered the proof of Jack Daniel's Black Label Tennessee ...
    www.drunkard.com/archive/md_editors_rant_jack.htm
  2. You're a Drunk - Modern Drunkard Magazine Online

    Whenever someone starts reading a bottle of Jack Daniels you say, “Quit cheating!” You don't sniff the cork, you chew it. Your career is interfering with ...
    www.drunkard.com/md_youre_a_drunk.htm
  3. 365 EXCUSES TO GET DRUNK - Modern Drunkard Magazine Online

    1/3 oz Jack Daniels 1/3 oz tequila 1/3 oz Bacardi 151. Mix and shoot before they shoot you. 29 W.C. Fields Birthday (1880). “'Twas a woman who drove me to ...
    drunkard.com/issues/09_03/09-03-reasons-to-get-drunk-jan.htm
  4. Modern Drunkard Magazine

    I like to start with red wine, then shift to vodka cocktails, back off to cheap American lager, then charge ahead with Jack Daniels on the rocks. ...
    www.drunkard.com/issues/05_03/05-03-oart-of-the-bender.html
  5. Modern Drunkard Magazine Online

    12 Frank Sinatra's Birthday (1915). “I'm for anything that gets you through the night—be it prayer, tranquilizers or a bottle of Jack Daniels.” Jack rocks. ...
    www.drunkard.com/issues/09_03/09-03-reasons-to-get-drunk-dec.htm
  6. 5.) Lush Lexicon - Modern Drunkard Magazine Online

    Jack and Jill A shot of Jack Daniels and a beer. Joint of no return A bar from which you are 86'd. Juice card Received on your 21st birthday. ...
    drunkard.com/issues/07_02/lexicon.htm
MORE

Carbon Trade: "EcoSecurities co-founder confident of bid success" (ECO.L)

From Reuters:
Pedro Moura Costa, the co-founder and former president of EcoSecurities, is confident his improved offer for the clean energy project developer will be successful, and dismissed the idea of a bidding war.

"There are no other bids on the table. There is no bidding war," he told Reuters in a telephone interview Tuesday.

"We have made a very aggressive and fair offer and the response has been overwhelmingly supportive of the bid," he said, adding that around 25 percent of shareholders have now agreed to accept the bid.

Costa's holding company Guanabara Tuesday increased its offer for EcoSecurities to 90 pence per share from 77 pence, and lowered the level of acceptances needed for the takeover to 50 percent from 80 percent.

"By lowering to 50 percent we achieve control sooner rather than later. This has been dragging on for long enough and we want to bring this process to a close," Costa said.

Swedish developer Tricorona, which said in July it was considering a bid for EcoSecurities, declined to comment....MORE

Baker Hughes deal a bet on natural gas (BHI; BJS)

Both stocks are up small fractions. From Loren Steffy at the Houston Chronicle:

Baker Hughes' $5.5 billion bid for BJ Services is a marriage made in recession.

The deal between the two Houston energy services companies is as much a bet on a rebound in natural gas prices as it is a strategic move for Baker Hughes to compete with Halliburton and Schlumberger. Natural gas prices have fallen 64 percent in the past year, closing Tuesday at $2.82 per million British thermal units.

Baker Hughes hopes to expand on BJ Services' expertise in drilling for shale gas, which has been one of the hottest exploration markets in recent years. Company executives predict the acquisition will add to earnings by 2011, based on the assumption of increased drilling activity that would result if prices rise to at least $6.50, said Ted Harper, a senior research analyst with Frost Investment Advisers in Houston.

“This is definitely a call that they think we are at or near the bottom,” he said.

Where, then, are all the other deals?

Recessions are supposed to drive consolidation, to prompt a culling of weaker companies by stronger ones. Yet in this downturn, energy industry deal-making has remained largely dormant.

“We are surprised that there wasn't more activity,” said Mark Roach, a senior vice president with the Houston-based Oil & Gas Asset Clearinghouse, a marketing and consulting firm for companies buying and selling oil and gas assets. “Everyone was in shock over the collapse of the equity markets as well as the impact on the commodity prices. People just froze and waited for some sort of stability.”

Natural gas uncertainty

Oil prices have doubled since February, but the market for natural gas remains fraught with uncertainty. Big finds of shale gas have resulted in a glut, which, combined with mounting competition from larger rivals Halliburton and Schlumberger, prompted the Baker Hughes-BJ Services deal. While Baker Hughes is hoping to capitalize on the recession, the lower prices may force many smaller companies into sales or mergers later this year or early next.

“There's a ticking clock,” Roach said.

Smaller exploration companies, for example, have been able to slow that clock down because of a cash overhang from the surge in commodity prices during the first half of last year and because many banks have been so embattled with other problems since last September that they were willing to be more lenient on financing. That's enabled troubled companies to delay refinancing or forestall mergers through joint ventures or other agreements....MORE

Natural Gas: "Supply/Demand Won't Balance Until Second Half 2010"

From the Financial Post:

Bleak winter for natural gas prices

Sagging natural gas prices, hovering around seven year lows, have hammered Alberta. The province is running a massive deficit thanks in part to low gas prices, jobs have been lost, and producers have shut in wells. Forecasters have been trying to sort out when fortunes will turn, and Peters & Co. Ltd. does not have good news for the impatient.

“The outlook for natural gas prices for this winter is poor....as total supply and demand in the U.S. are not forecast to come back into balance until the second half of 2010,” the Calgary-based brokerage house said in a recent research note.

“However, the North American supply/demand situation should swing sharply back in favour of higher natural gas prices in the second half of 2010 as we forecast that, even with flat year-over-year industrial and residential gas demand, U.S. gas storage will decrease...for the beginning of the 2010/2011 heating season.”

Société Générale's Albert Edwards "A Full Blown Deflationary Episode"

We are fans of Mssr. Edwards, see links below. From FT Alphaville:

Albert Edwards is back!

It is a month since we last heard from the Soc Gen strategist and he is in typically combative form in his latest Global Strategy Weekly. Indeed, he has a very simple message for all those commentators puzzled by the fact that both government bond and equity markets are rising — don’t be.

The bond market is responding to two key events. First, it is clear to us the ongoing march into outright deflation will accelerate during this short-lived economic recovery. Second, post-bubble realities will force commercial banks to aggressively step up their buying of government bonds.

To wit he notes:

In the US and elsewhere, where commercial bank exposure to government paper is still close to all-time lows, the unwinding of grotesque over-exposure to bubble sectors like real estate will continue to underpin the secular bull market in government bonds.

As for equity investors, well they are just short sighted:

Once again, equity participants are missing the big picture. Despite clear signs from the business surveys of some sort of H2 recovery, firm evidence is emerging that the global economy is sliding towards a full-blown deflationary episode once this recovery falters.

While there can be no doubt that survey evidence is pointing to a more robust second half, equity markets should be far more nervous than they currently are. We heartily concur with GMO’s Jeremy Grantham who remarked recently that after 20 years of more or less permanent overvaluation of US equities, we saw just five months of under-pricing through the March trough. Do bursting global equity valuation bubbles really end like this? Of course they don’t.

Welcome back Albert. Good holiday?

Prior posts on Mr. Edwards:

More on "Société Générale's Albert Edwards "New Stockmarket Lows 2nd half of 2009"'

Société Générale's Albert Edwards "New Stockmarket Lows 2nd half of 2009"

Quote of the Day: Albert Edwards, Société Générale

May 8, 2008
This Week’s Advice: Canned Food, Guns and a Ham Radio

June 26, 2008
Société Générale: “We see a y-shaped global recession. We are going down before looping backwards”

September 5, 2oo8
"Meltdown"-Société Générale

September, 2008
Société Générale: Prepare for the Great Unwind, part Deux

Jan 28, 2009
People I Listen To: "Albert Edwards: Back in the bear camp

Industry Seeks Fannie, Freddie Overhaul (FRE; FNM)

From the Wall Street Journal:

A mortgage-industry trade group is calling for Congress to transform Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac into several smaller privately held companies that would issue mortgage securities carrying an explicit government guarantee.

The proposed framework, to be released Wednesday by the Mortgage Bankers Association, would give successor entities to Fannie and Freddie the authority to create securities backed by certain types of mortgages. The new companies would guarantee the securities against defaults on the underlying mortgages.

The new companies would also pay fees into a federal insurance fund, which would guarantee interest and principal payments to bondholders if the companies were unable to make them.

Such an insurance fund, designed to kick in only if the companies were to suffer catastrophic losses, would provide explicit federal backing. That would replace the current system, in which investors have long assumed that the government would stand behind Fannie and Freddie.

Some foreign investors in China and elsewhere lost confidence in that fuzzy implied guarantee last year and reduced their holdings of the companies' debt, though the U.S. government has propped up Fannie and Freddie with capital infusions.

"If we're going to restore and maintain investor confidence and...consistent liquidity, that is going to require an explicit backstop," said John Courson, chief executive and president of the MBA.

Shares of both Fannie and Freddie fell by more than 17% Tuesday in New York Stock Exchange trading. The price drops followed a Monday report from FBR Capital Markets that said there is "no fundamental value remaining" in the companies' shares....MUCH MORE


Tuesday, September 1, 2009

The Solar Stocks as a Leading Indicator for the Overall Market (TAN,)

There is an old trader's saying that "As soon as you think you've found the key, they go and change the lock".
We first mentioned the possible correlation in "SunPower Soars 27% on Q2 Beat; Upgrades Galore (SPWRA)":

Reiterated August 11 in "Solar Stocks Getting Crushed: JASO; LDK; SOLF; SOLR; STP;TSL; YGE":

This could be bad news for the overall market. As we posted on July 24:

Through all the ups and downs over the last year I have the impression that the solars have led the general market in the magnitude of the moves and possibly been an indicator. This is a subjective observation, I haven't gone back to check the numbers but I do have a fairly good memory.
[which explains all the self-reverential links? -ed]
The Nasdaq list of leading decliners has five solars in the twenty worst (via the WSJ's Markets Data Center)...
Here's the chart of the Claymore/MAC Global Solar Energy ETF vs. the S&P 500 via Yahoo Finance:
Chart for Claymore/MAC Global Solar Energy (TAN)

Schaeffer's Mid-Day Market Check: Dow Drops 180 points...

From Schaeffer's:

...The sector action shows some minor buying in gold and bonds. The rest of the pack is firmly lower with the Broker/Dealer Index (XBD), Regional Bank HOLDRS (RKH), SPDR Homebuilders (XHB), and Cyclical Index (CYC) among the weakest areas.

I ended yesterday session noting that the Dow had pulled back to test support from its recent highs. The extended intraday chart shows that the support has now been broken. Keep in eye on the short-term Relative Strength Index (RSI). The RSI reading for both the SPX and DJIA has declined to levels that marked the end of the mid-August pullback. I will follow up after the close with more thoughts on that...MORE Charts


Intraday Selloff Hits Financials, Materials Hardest

From Bespoke Investment Group:

September isn't getting off to a good start. Since its intraday peak at 10:07 AM ET, the S&P 500 is down 2.70%. We calculated sector performance over the same time to see which areas of the market are leading it lower. As shown below, Financials are down the most with a decline of 4.03%, followed by Materials (-3.54%), Consumer Discretionary (-2.95%), and Industrials (-2.81%). Utilities have held up the best intraday, but the sector is still down more than 1.01% since 10:07. The S&P 500 is now just a point above the 1,000 level, and if the downtrend continues intraday, we'll be in the 900s again very soon.

Spintraday

That's about as real-time as the blogging thing gets. Here are a couple other Bespoke headlines:
Financials Lead in August
Best and Worst Performing Stocks in August
Most Overbought ETFs

Paul Tudor Jones: "Goldman Sachs Wrong on Economic Recovery"

Paul Tudor Jones is one of the very best in his field. Anyone interested in Global Macro and intermarket analysis should read our May '09 post "Paul Tudor Jones Interview at Institutional Investor".
From Bloomberg:
Paul Tudor Jones, the billionaire hedge-fund manager who outperformed peers last year, is wagering that Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley got it wrong in declaring the start of an economic recovery.

Jones’s Tudor Investment Corp., Clarium Capital Management LLC and Horseman Capital Management Ltd. are taking a bearish stand as U.S. stock and bond prices rise, saying that record government spending may be forestalling another slowdown and market selloff. The firms oversee a combined $15 billion in so- called macro funds, which seek to profit from economic trends by trading stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities.

“If we have a recovery at all, it isn’t sustainable,” Kevin Harrington, managing director at Clarium, said in an interview at the firm’s New York offices. “This is more likely a ski-jump recession, with short-term stimulus creating a bump that will ultimately lead to a more precipitous decline later.”...

...Loaded for Bear

Clarium, which oversees about $2 billion, is positioned for an equity bear market through investments in the U.S. dollar, Harrington said. Falling stock prices will strengthen the currency by forcing leveraged investors to sell equities to pay down the dollar-denominated debt they used to finance those trades, he said.

High unemployment, lower wages and potential missteps by policymakers around the globe may stifle economic growth in 2010, Tudor said. The firm, which manages $10.8 billion, is at odds with 55 economists projecting an average of 2.3 percent growth next year, according to the Bloomberg survey.

Macro managers’ pessimism is fueled in part by the U.S. government’s response to last year’s financial crisis, which they say fails to address the root cause. Banks still hold hard- to-sell assets on their balance sheets, the managers said.

Subdued Credit Growth

“Some critical initiatives have been cut short,” Tudor said. “As a result, toxic assets remain on balance sheets and credit growth is likely to be subdued for a long period.”>>>MUCH MORE

Democracy is dead ... lobbyists rule America

Anyone who has given even a cursory look at the Waxman-Markey climate bill would have to agree. From the insertion of 300 pages of amendments at 3:00 a.m. the day of the House vote to the lobbyists fingerprints on every one of the 1400+ pages of the thing, it is a perversion of the founding fathers conception of representative democracy.

The incestuous relationship between the rentseekers and the lawmakers prompted me to study Mussolini's Corporatism. Although the author of the linked piece is more dogmatic than I, the points he makes are reality-based observations.

Whether you are approaching from a political or investment perspective this is crucial information for understanding and decision making.

Should enough Senator's get their palms greased, we will do everything we can to point out the opportunities to profit by way of portfolio and direct investment.
From Paul Farrell at MarketWatch:

16-point manifesto for the new 'Lobbyist Nation of America'

Democracy dead? Lobbyists ruling America? Lobbyists the new "Unseen Hand" of capitalism? Sadly yes.

And here's why: Ask any neuroeconomist, behavioral-finance quant, investment psychologist or other practitioner of the mysterious "science of irrationality" and they'll tell you that Americans have two self-sabotaging mental biases that killed democracy from within: "Denial" and "Magical Thinking" make us easy targets. Our brains are being manipulated by clandestine forces beyond our control. We can't see them or resist.

Yet we refuse to believe in this new Orwellian America. We prefer the world of magic, myth and illusion.

Yes, folks, democracy is dead. Oh, the illusion will be kept alive in our history books, in the rhetoric of politicians, in the manipulated minds of America's 95 million Main Street investors. The propaganda machine works. Like a child's fairy tale, democracy has been deeply imbedded in our brains for decades; we prefer believing old, familiar stories. They comfort us, even when no longer true. The real democracy, what so many fought and died for since 1776, is dead.

Lobbyists now run America, own America, rule America. Forget the 537 politicians you thought we elected to the White House, Senate and Congress to run America for us. No, they're mere puppets, pawns for the "Happy Conspiracy," an oligopoly, plutocracy, cabal, monopoly all-in-one -- a private club of America's richest few on Wall Street, in Washington and in Corporate America.

Voters and elections are irrelevant. Lobbyists decide what's in the best interests of this elite club. The usual suspects? Try the Forbes 400.

Last year Michael Barone wrote a "Defense of Lobbyists" in U.S. News & World Report: "Lobbying is as American as apple pie, going back to the colonies." How naïve, how in denial.

He obviously missed reading Bob Kaiser's brilliant 25-part series in the Washington Post a couple years earlier, on "how lobbying became Washington's biggest business." Turns out that modern lobbying actually began in the mid-1970s with the innovative "earmarked appropriations, federal funds directed by Congress to private institutions when no federal agency had proposed spending the money."

Kaiser expanded the series to: "So Damn Much Money: The Triumph of Lobbying and the Corrosion of American Government." In just three decades, Washington has earmarked hundreds of billions thanks to lobbyists peddling influence bribes to buy Washington votes.

After all, the cost of a Senate race has exploded from $437,000 to $7.9 million. So lobbyists shovel millions to friendly senators, like Connecticut Democrat Christopher Dodd and Alabama Republican Richard Shelby.

Lobbyists love spending your tax dollars

In another example of lobbyists stealing taxpayer dollars Kaiser tells how "last fall the House of Representatives set off a sudden collapse of the stock market by voting against the first version of the bailout legislation that had been hurriedly written to try to stabilize American banks and other financial institutions." Lobbyists then "scrambled to change the legislation in ways that would win support for it from a majority of Congressmen."

How? Simple: Within just days they manipulated Congress to throw in more taxpayer cash. "Sweeteners" included excise-tax rebates for Puerto Rican rum. tax breaks for stock-car-track owners, tax breaks for Hollywood movies made in the USA and lots more. So "days after rejecting the $750 billion bailout, the House approved it."

Why so easy? There's a huge, highly paid army of mercenary lobbyists in Washington. Registered lobbyists may be 42,000 versus a mere 537 elected officials. American University political scientist James Thurber says there are actually 261,000 members of the "influence-lobbying complex" running your government. Many are former congressmen, senators and staffers. Others are ad hoc mercenaries, like the 350 hired by the GOP just to kill health-care reforms at a cost over a million bucks a day.

Another example: Former Senate leader Tom Daschle is not registered, yet has emerged as a key go-between for Obama and health-care insurers, a perfect example of how Obama's $9 trillion programs have fueled an explosion of influence peddlers. Daschle told the New York Times he sees no conflicts, although he's highly paid by insurers. He calls himself a neutral "resource."

This anti-democracy trend was recently exposed in a BusinessWeek piece, "Don't Call Them Lobbyists," where we see this industry rebranding itself as cooperators, as "special policy advisors," "crisis managers" and "strategic planners." Reminds us of that fairy tale about a "wolf in sheep's clothing" guarding the hen house....MORE

UPDATE: "Warren Buffett's Desire to Hike Stake In Chinese Electric Car-Maker May Not Be New (BRK.A; 1211.HK)"

A reader emails an update to yesterday's "China's BYD says Buffett wants to raise stake (BRK.A: 1211.HK)". From CNBC:
Shares of Chinese electric-car maker BYD rallied 8 percent in Hong Kong trading today (Monday), finishing at an all-time closing of HK$48.60.

The buying was apparently sparked by news wire headlines quoting BYD's chairman as saying Warren Buffett "wants" or "intends" to raise Berkshire Hathaway's 10 percent stake in the company.

Berkshire's MidAmerican Energy Holdings has already generated a paper profit of over $1 billion on its $230 million dollar investment announced last fall.

While it is dificult to precisely parse words when they're spoken (presumably) in Chinese and then reported in headlines and wire dispatches, it appears to me that BYD Chairman & CEO Wang Chuanfu may not have been saying anything new....

The "always" implies MidAmerican's interest in buying more shares is not new, and the "still considering" indicates BYD won't necessarily agree to sell Buffett a bigger stake in the company.

Fortune Magazione cover: Buffett's Electric Car
That interest to buy more on Buffett's side, and reluctance to sell on BYD's side, is consistent with Fortune's cover story earlier this year describing the negotiations that led to Berkshire's investment in BYD:

Berkshire Hathaway first tried to buy 25% of BYD, but Wang turned down the offer. He wanted to be in business with Buffett - to enhance his brand and open doors in the U.S., he says - but he would not let go of more than 10% of BYD's stock. "This was a man who didn't want to sell his company," Buffett says. "That was a good sign.">>>MORE

American Intl Group: Downgraded to Underperform at Sanford Bernstein; $10 target (AIG)

In early pre-market trade the stock is down $2.23 (4.92%) at $45.33. If SB is correct that leaves some downside, eh?
From Notable Calls:
Sanford Bernstein is out downgrading American Intl Group (NYSE:AIG) to Underperform from Market Perform and maintaining their $10 tgt.

Firm notes there are no changes to their thinking since their Q2 earnings writeup on August 10. Therefore, the downgrade is strictly a reaction to the big run up in AIG's stock price.

Using their 3-part valuation model, Sanford can examine why they think AIG's current stock price allows very little chance for uncertainty, and fails to corporate considerable downside risk potential....

...− Finally, AIG's current stock price gives virtually no weight to the possibility that the common equity is worth zero. Both the base and upside scenarios show the possibility of zero in any sensitivity analysis, and we are explicitly using a 50% probability of this event. While they would acknowledge that the prospects for AIG employees and insurance operating units appears considerably better than they did 9 months ago, the same cannot automatically be said for common shareholders. Firm still thinks the political risk is considerable, with a very real possibility that the Government reduces support once AIG is no longer deemed a systemic risk.

Notablecalls: I hate to quote Jim Bob Cramer here but here it goes:

'..And then, finally, there is AIG (AIG). Here's one where, honestly, they could sell off every division for double what they are looking for, they could earn 10 times what anyone thinks they could earn, and it will still come nowhere near paying back that money it owes the government. So what happens? You doubled your money after the 20-for-1 reverse split that all the pros know is a "you can run but you can't hide" sucker play! That's catastrophic to the rigorous players; it's natural to the speculators..'

- Realmoney.com

AIG has become a trading vechicle and it kind of feels it running on fumes here. This doesn't mean it cant go to $75 but if you short it here around $43-$44 in the pre market you can cover it in the really low $40's today if the overall market remains weakish.

The call it not yet publicly known. Just remember AIG is a sick-sick stock.

MORE DETAIL at Notable Calls.