Salmon: "Mass escape from Colonsay fish farm after Storm Brendan"

From Coastal Communities Network—Scotland:

Mowi Scotland has reported the escape of 73,600 salmon with an average weight of 1.9 kilograms following damage to a pen at the company’s Colonsay farm during storm Brendan last week.
It comes in the wake of two large-scale escapes from Mowi sites at Hellisay, near Barra in the Outer Hebrides, in October and November.

In total, more than 120,000 salmon have escaped from Mowi Scotland fish farms on the west coast of Scotland this winter due to wild weather damaging cages.
All three escapes were from the Norwegian-owned firm’s new generation of high capacity offshore sites.

The Colonsay incident ranks among the 10 biggest known escapes from fish farms in Scotland and is the worst since 2014.

An estimated four million farmed salmon have been freed in more than 200 incidents since 1995, with scientific research showing that a quarter of wild Scottish salmon now carry genes from Norwegian farmed salmon due to hybridisation.

Mowi’s Colonsay net pen farm is one of the most far-flung and exposed in the world. Its construction exceeds both Scottish and Norwegian technical standards for net pens....MORE

Recently:
Scots running amok
"Scottish Fish Farm Rejected after Campaigners Warn Fishermen Could be Lured to their Deaths by Fairies"

"Norway's Slow TV to feature Svalbard round the clock for nine days"

Sounds good but I don't see how anything can top National Knitting Night.*

Jus' sayin'
From the Barents Observer:

Fascinating viewers for hours and days, the Norwegian slow TV concept takes it to the ultimate with the longest ever program starting on January 31st.

«Svalbard minute by minute» was recorded last August and can be viewed on the national broadcaster’s NRK2 channel from January 31 at 18.00 to midnight on February 9.

NRK launched the idea of slow TV on the 100th anniversary of Bergensbanen, the railway from Oslo to Bergen in 2009. With cameras in front, inside, on the sides and along the route, the entire 7 hours 16 minutes journey became a big hit with 1,2 million Norwegians tuned in to the show (Norway has a population of 5 million).

The success was followed up by the Flåmsbana (Flåm railway) minute by minute in 2010 and the big hit «Hurtigruten minute by minute» in 2011 on board a cruise vessel sailing all along the coast from Bergen to Kirkenes, a voyage and TV show lasting almost seven days.

In 2012, Nordlandbanen, the railway between Trondheim and Bodø across the Arctic Circle was recorded for 9 hours and 50 minutes and was followed by 1,2 million viewers.

The 2017 production followed a herder family with almost 1500 reindeers on a 100 kilometer migration route from the inland to the coast in the northermost region of the country....MORE

We looked at slow TV in 2018 when I mistook a drama based on the Norwegian oil industry for a musical:

....If that sets your heart racing a bit too fast there's always Norway's gift to the entertainment world: Slow TV.
Beginning with the groundbreaking train trip from Bergen to Oslo—put cameras on train, film passing scenery for seven hours—a quarter of the country tuned in (and now on Netflix), to thirteen hours of knitting to an epic 134-hour-long cruise voyage, Slow TV is the perfect antidote to the hurly-burly of Stavanger and the North Sea Oil biz.

Oh, and if you don't subscribe to Netflix here's the train trip via YouTube (running time 7:14:14)
Bergensbanen minutt for minutt

Additionally, "National Knitting Night":

was followed by the sequels

• National Knitting Evening
• National Knitting Morning

because, as Rune Moklebust, one of the the producers said:

"Well, it has to be unique -- not a copy of the last one,"
"So we have to push the boundaries for each show, I think."

We'll be back with 18 hours of salmon swimming upstream if I can find it.
(not quite as soothing, you start rooting for the salmon and, well it can get intense)

Autonomous Vehicles: "Major Trends in Russian Military Unmanned Systems Development for the Next Decade"

From the U.S. Army's Mad Scientist Initiative:

[Editor’s Note: Mad Scientist Laboratory has previously described how unmanned systems, including advanced battlefield robotic systems acting both autonomously and as part of a wider trend in man-machine teaming, will account for a significant percentage of combatant forces in the future. Earlier this month, the U.S. Army awarded contracts for four Robotic Combat Vehicle-Light (RCV-L) and four RCV-Medium (RCV-M) prototypes for testing in late 2021. In today’s post, returning guest blogger and proclaimed Mad Scientist Sam Bendett explores three trends associated with Russian battlefield autonomous systems — read on to learn how this near-peer competitor is embracing this game changing technology!]

The next 10 years will be significant for the Russian military, as it will begin to capitalize on the fruits of its previous decades of labor – the investment in new technologies, testing and evaluation of new weapons and systems, and conceptualizing the future of warfare and Russia’s place in the rapidly evolving art of war. There are three major Russian trends to observe in the next ten years. The first is the emphasis on Russia’s development and use of unmanned combat systems.

Orion UAV / Source: http://vitalykuzmin.net via Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International

Russia’s Syria experience — and monitoring the U.S. use of unmanned systems for the past two decades — convinced the Ministry of Defense (MOD) that its forces need more expanded unmanned combat capabilities to augment existing Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) systems that allowed Russian forces to observe the battlefield in real time. The next decade will see Russia complete the testing and evaluation of an entire lineup of combat drones that were in different stages of development over the previous decade. They include the heavy Ohotnik combat UAV (UCAV); mid-range Orion that was tested in Syria; Russian-made Forpost, a UAV that was originally assembled via Israeli license; mid-range Korsar; and long-range Altius that was billed as Russia’s equivalent to the American Global Hawk drone. All of these UAVs are several years away from potential acquisition by armed forces, with some going through factory tests, while others graduating to military testing and evaluation. These UAVs will have a range from over a hundred to possibly thousands of kilometers, depending on the model, and will be able to carry weapons for a diverse set of missions.

Uran-9 UGV / Source: http://vitalykuzmin.net via Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International

The Russian ground forces have also been testing a full lineup of Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGVs), from small to tank-sized vehicles armed with machine guns, cannon, grenade launchers, and sensors. Today, the MOD is conceptualizing how such UGVs could be used in a range of combat scenarios, including urban combat. And at sea, Russia is looking to field a lineup of Unmanned Underwater and Surface Vehicles (UUVs/USVs) that will give Russian vessels and maritime assets greater ISR range and capability, along with key ASW, de-mining, and even combat characteristics. In fact, there are potential plans to equip naval ships with air, surface, and subsurface unmanned systems, making each vessel in the Russian Navy a carrier and user of unmanned technology.

Russian Minister of Defense Shoigu briefs President Putin on the ERA technopark in 2018 / Source: en.kremlin.ru

Another significant trend is the gradual shift from manual control over unmanned systems to a fully autonomous mode, perhaps powered by a limited Artificial Intelligence (AI) program. The Russian MOD has already communicated its desire to have unmanned military systems operate autonomously in a fast-paced and fast-changing combat environment. While the actual technical solution for this autonomy may evade Russian designers in this decade due to its complexity, the MOD will nonetheless push its developers for near-term results that may perhaps grant such fighting vehicles limited semi-autonomous status. The MOD would also like this AI capability be able to direct swarms of air, land, and sea-based unmanned and autonomous systems. To get to the right solutions, the MOD has opened centers and institutions tasked with hi-tech weapons development and testing.

This includes Russia’s own DARPA-like agency, the Advanced Research Foundation, where AI and swarming technologies are developed; and the ERA technopark that is managed by the MOD....

....MORE 

Shipping: How To Drive a Boat

It helps if you have a friendly tug nearby but still takes more skill than most folks could ever learn.
From Thrillist: 

Cruise Ship Makes History With an Impossible Squeeze Through Narrow Canal

We know a lot about tight squeezes here at Thrillist. We're writers with deadlines -- and access to YouTube -- after all. But I'm almost positive that nobody here is capable of steering a 22.25-meter-wide cruise liner through a 24 meter-wide canal, though sometimes it feels like that after a few too many cups of coffee.

There are some incredibly cool cruise ships out there; we know, because we ranked them. And Fred. Olsen Cruise Lines, the company responsible for this tight squeeze miracle, is no exception: they promise to get you "closer to the world’s most remote and picturesque destinations." In this case, as close as possible to the jagged walls of an alarmingly narrow canal.

Fred. Olsen Cruise Lines is a Norwegian-owned company with four cruise ships based in the United Kingdom. The company's ship MS Braemar was sailing through the Corinth Canal in Greece, which, as previously mentioned, is just 24 meters wide at its narrowest point. The canal is four miles long and was built to allow for faster travel around the peninsula. Tourist vessels seek it out because the narrow quality of the canal makes it a bit more ~exclusive~....

Breathe in everyone!
A fantastic photo from this morning, sailing through the #CorinthCanal #greece  #Braemar pic.twitter.com/OJWx3LLzz0

— Fred. Olsen Cruise Lines (@FredOlsenCruise) October 9, 2019

...MUCH MORE

Foxconn's Terry Gou Buying Beverly Hills Properties

Hmmm....hidey hole?
From The Real Deal (L.A.):

Bird Streets home flies off the market for $33M to reported Taiwanese buyer

The sale is the biggest in the Beverly Hills enclave for over a year; $42M sale could be next

A Bird Streets home flew off the market Monday for $33 million to a Taiwanese billionaire with a second mega-sale waiting in the wings.

A 17,000-square foot home at 9268 Robin Dr. in the exclusive Beverly Hills enclave has sold, according to the Multiple Listings Service, with a neighboring home at 9272 Robin Dr. expected to sell for $42 million to the same buyer, manufacturing industry titan Terry Gou, according to sources familiar with the deal.

The sales are easily the biggest in the past 12 months for a Bird Streets, where mega-listing prices have often not translated into huge sales.

Kurt Rappaport of Westside Estate Agency Inc. and Rayni Williams of Hilton & Hyland brokered the 9268 Robin Drive sale on behalf of Iranian-born businessperson Farzin Aghaipour. The pending sale at 9272 Robin Drive was done on behalf of Francesco Aquilini, owner of the Vancouver Canucks’ National Hockey League team and developer of the mansion, whose construction was completed last year....MORE

Yes, But How Do I Trade Dengue Fever?

From Markets Not Live at FT Alphaville:

...this chart from Bankhaus Lampe presenting the MSCI’s response to various maladies:

As we can see, Sars and swine flue (sic) are the bull-market ailments. Avian flu can be considered a long-term positive and it’s worth buying the ebola dip, but you should sell on the first wheeze of pneumonic plague. Good, thanks....MUCH MORE

How can anyone look upon this and not weep (tears of joy)
Combined with the opening swipe at economists and their physics envy and the out-the-door mention of the Hipgnosis Songs Fund, discerning reader has to agree, there is nothing else on the internet quite like MnL.

Blockchain Babies Lament 30% Fall In VC Activity

From CB Insights, January 22:

Despite a drop in total funding dollars, investment activity in the fourth quarter of 2019 points towards pockets of opportunities for blockchain technology in enterprise applications.

Blockchain companies have lost a step in the private markets.

Total equity funding to the space, which is one measure of investor enthusiasm, fell over 30% in 2019. Mentions of the technology in public company earnings transcripts also dropped off.

One of the reasons for this slip is that many products are still trying to find product market fit.

Entrepreneurs have pitched applications for blockchain technology ranging from supply chain tracking to financial asset settlement, but the only one that has found adoption at any significant scale so far is cryptocurrency creation and trading. Bitcoin still dominates in that area, representing over 65% of the cryptocurrency market’s total value.

Still, investor activity shows there are pockets of potential in the blockchain sector worth tracking. Using CB Insights data, we analyze investment trends across the space from Q4 2019.

Fourth quarter funding down sharply from a year ago
Overall, dollar funding in 2019 was down 28% from 2018’s peak of $4.3B, while deal activity remained relatively flat.

Companies like Bitmain (cryptocurrency mining hardware) and Coinbase (cryptocurrency exchange) were the top two fundraisers in 2018, demonstrating investors’ focus on public cryptocurrencies. The companies raised $400M and $321M, respectively, both contributing to 2018’s spike.
In Q4’19, companies in the blockchain space raised $785M across 164 deals, representing a 36% decline from Q4’18. Though lower than 2018 numbers by a stretch, the quarter still outperformed Q1 and Q2 in 2019, with investor interest pointing specifically towards enterprise applications.

Enterprise payments network Ripple raised the highest amount of funding in the quarter — a $200M Series C round from SBI Group, Tetragon Financial Group, and Route 66 Ventures, which valued the company at $10B. Ripple stated the financing would go towards additional hiring, adding overseas offices, and improving balance sheet flexibility.

The company has continued to market its RippleNet payments platform as a disruptive technology to the cross-border payments market and the correspondent banking system that banks use to transfer funds.....

....MUCH MORE

Jean-Louis Gassée: "IoT Trouble: The Sonos Example — And More"

When we last checked in with M. Gassée, the former Apple honcho was opining on Tesla and he was not impressed.
Here's something else he is not impressed by.

From The Monday Note, January 26: 

The everything-computerized-and-always-connected smarthome is a work in progress. This slow pace is a good thing because it gives us time to consider new technical and societal challenges.

Six years ago, on January 12th 2014, I wrote a Monday Note titled Internet of Things: The “Basket of Remotes” Problem. As I saw it then, there were two Internet of Things: A thriving, professional version for industry and a less mature version for consumers. This is still the case today as the Industrial IoT continues to prosper [as always, edits and emphasis mine]:

“The Industrial IoT is alive and well. A gas refinery is a good example: Wired and wireless sensors monitor the environment, data is transmitted to control centers, actuators direct the flow of energy and other activities. And the entire system is managed by IT pros who have the skill, training, and culture — not to mention the staff — to oversee the (literal) myriad unseen devices that control complicated and dangerous processes.”

As for the Consumer version with its promise of intelligent homes with connected appliances — now with the added frisson of Artificial Intelligence — very little progress has been made in the past six years:

"For consumers, technology should get out of the way — it’s a means, not an end. Consumers don’t have the mindset or training of IT techies, they don’t have the time or focus to build a mental representation of a network of devices, their interactions and failure modes. […]

How to represent in one’s mind a home network of IoT objects that connect the heating and cooling systems, security cameras, CO and fire sensors, the washer, dryer, stove, fridge, entertainment devices, and under-the-mattress sleep monitoring pads. This may be an exaggerated example, but even with a small group of objects, how does a normal human configure and manage the network?"

At the time, early 2014, there was no answer to the management question, hence the real and figurative recourse to a basket of remotes, to isolated, non-integrated controls for each device. One remote for the TV, another for the heating/cooling system, and so on.

Admittedly, managing your consumer IoT is, six years later, a little bit easier. Thermostats have some intelligence and can be controlled from a smartphone; among other competing solutions Apple’s HomeKit and the Home app provides building blocks for tech-savvy users to control lights, power outlets, doors, cameras, and the like, all now accessible through Siri commands. I see convincing examples… at the hands of expert software engineers. But how many normal humans can develop a smarthome system, let alone maintain it when bugs, software updates, or security issues arise?

There is more. We’re now seeing problems and issues that we didn’t anticipate in 2014. Sonos, the popular smart audio manufacturer, provides a good, publicized example.

First, there was the justifiable objection to the company’s Recycle Mode, part of its hardware Trade Up program. You could get a discount on a new Sonos device if you submitted your old one to a software procedure that permanently disabled it after which you would take it to an e-recycling facility. According to Sonos…

“Taking your device to a local certified e-recycling facility is the most environmentally friendly means of disposal”

Protesters objected that the company’s claim, which has since been removed from their website, was disingenuous. Is permanently disabling an otherwise good device — a device that you could have given to a friend or family member — an environmentally sound move? Ah, but that was the condition to get a 30% discount on a newer one.

The Sonos story gets better (meaning worse)....

....MORE

"Trade and the Farm Economy: Two Charts to Watch in 2020"

From Agricultural Economic Insights Insights, January 27:

Before the ink dried on the newly signed Phase 1 trade agreement, dozens of articles and Twitter threads emerged with clever insights into the nuances and subtleties of agreement. Most debates focused on the base level China agree to buy up from, and the relevant commodities and products. Stepping back from the details, this week’s post considers the potential impacts and implications of trade and the farm economy with two charts.

U.S. Ag Exports to China
The question on everyone’s mind is how China’s purchases of U.S. ag products expands over the next few years. Figure 1 shows U.S. exports of agricultural and related products to China[1]. Again, the goal here is not digging into the Phase 1 trade deal specifics, but rather looking at historic trends.

China’s purchases peaked at nearly $29 billion in 2012 and 2013. Exports to China, measured in dollars, peaked when commodity prices peaked. This isn’t a coincidence. Measuring trade activity in dollars is beneficial because one can aggregate across commodities and products, but is limiting as year-to-year changes could be driven by changes in 1) volume and/or 2) prices.

During the Trade War, trade activity with China contracted sharply. China’s purchases in 2018 were 45% less than 2017 levels. Forecasted 2019 levels were 37% less than 2017 levels.
Without a doubt, the best outcome from Phase 1 is the possibility of U.S. exports to China returning to pre-Trade War levels.

Figure 1. U.S Export to China – Ag and Related Products, 2000 to 2019F. Data Source: USDA’s FAS & aei.ag calculation.

Total U.S. Ag Exports
The second – and perhaps most important- chart to consider is total U.S. ag exports. In recent years, total U.S. exports of ag and related products have ranged between $150 – $160 billion. Trade activity has contracted from the highs of $169 billion (2014) but has remained strong in recent years.

Often overlooked in the discussion about the future of trade with China are the implications for total exports. If there is a surge in China’s purchase activity – say ag exports (as reported in figure 1) surge to more than $30 or $35 billion in 2020- would that, in turn, move the needle on total U.S. ag exports?

Consider the scale of China’s purchases. In 2017, China accounted for 15% of total U.S. ag exports. While China is a significant, important trade partner, the U.S. ag export markets are, overall, diversified. The three largest buyers of U.S. ag exports– China, Mexico, Canada – accounted for 54% of total activity in 2017.

As a result of the previous point, the relationship between China’s buying activity and total U.S. ag exports is tricky. In 2018, when China’s purchases fell 45% (or $10.8 billion), total ag exports increased by 1% ($1.7 billion). Most recently, China’s purchases in 2019 are forecasted to be $8.8 billion below 2017 levels, while total exports are forecasted at $4.8 billion below 2017 levels. This is to say the global trade economy adjusts. In 2020, if China steps-up and buys more U.S. soybeans, the U.S. will probably lose sales to non-Chinese soybean markets. Taken one step further: if China’s purchases of ag and related products exceeded $35 billion in 2020 (figure 1), how does the $20 billion increase translate into total U.S. ag exports (figure 2)? It is unlikely to have a dollar-for-dollar impact....

....MUCH MORE

Creighton University's Rural Mainstreet Index Begins 2020 on Strong Footing: Bank Loans to Farms Lowest in Almost 7 Years

From Creighton Uni's Heider School of Business, January 16:

January Survey Results at a Glance:

• Overall index remained above growth neutral rising to its highest level since June 2018.
• Farm loans fell to lowest level in almost seven years.
• Two of three Nebraska bankers reported property taxes as a significant factor reducing farm profitability, while only one of ten non-Nebraska bankers indicated that property taxes were a significant factor reducing farm profitability
• Farm equipment sales declined for the month. On average, bankers expect sales to decline by another 4.2% in 2020.

OMAHA, Neb. (Jan. 16, 2020) – The Creighton University Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) for January climbed to its highest level since June 2018. January’s reading marked the fifth straight month the reading has moved above growth neutral according to the monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy. 

Overall: While the overall index for January rose to 55.9 from 50.2 in December. It was the 11th time in the past 12 months that the index has risen above growth neutral 50.0. 

“Only 17.7% of bank CEOs reported that their local economy was in an economic downturn. This is an improvement from one year ago when 22.9% indicated that their local economy was in a recession, or economic downturn,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

Don Reynolds, chairman of Regional Missouri Bank in Marceline, Missouri, said, “Farm income for 2019 and projections for 2020 are not as bleak as expected.” 

Farming and ranching: After moving above growth neutral last month, the farmland and ranchland-price index fell to 45.6 from December’s much stronger reading of 52.8. This is the 73rd time in the past 74 months that the index has fallen below growth neutral.

While farm land prices have weakened for several years, property taxes on that land have tended to rise. “Two of three Nebraska bankers reported property taxes as a significant factor reducing farm profitability, while only one of ten non-Nebraska bankers indicated that property taxes were a significant factor reducing farm profitability,” reported Goss. 

The January farm equipment-sales index increased to a weak 35.0 from December’s 27.9. This marks the 76th month that the reading has remained below growth neutral 50.0.

This month, bankers were asked to project farm equipment sales for 2020. On average, bank CEOs expect sales to decline by 4.2% this year. 

Banking: Borrowing by farmers weakened again in January. The borrowing index declined to 48.5, its lowest level since February 2013, from December’s 50.0. The checking-deposit index rose to 76.5 from December’s 61.1, while the index for certificates of deposit and other savings instruments climbed to 60.3 from 50.0 in December. 

Hiring: The employment gauge advanced to a very healthy 61.8 from December’s 60.0. Despite the trade war and weaker manufacturing in rural areas, Rural Mainstreet businesses are now hiring at a solid pace.

Over the past 12 months, the Rural Mainstreet economy added jobs at a 0.4% pace, or well below the rate of urban area growth of 1.0% for the same period. 

Confidence: The confidence index, which reflects bank CEO expectations for the economy six months out, increased to a still weak 50.0 from 45.8 in December. The index continues to indicate a negative economic outlook among bankers. “Creighton’s January survey was conducted before the signing of the Phase 1 trade agreement with China and the Senate passage of USMCA. I expect the passage of USMCA and the January 15 trade agreement with China to boost business confidence in the months ahead,” said Goss....

....MORE

China Looks to Further its Arctic Role by Constructing Ice Breaking Arc7 LNG Carriers

From Arctic Today, January 22:

China’s Hudong Zhonghua shipyard aims to construct ice-capable LNG carriers for Novatek’s Arctic LNG 2 project.

Last month Russia’s natural gas giant Novatek and its shipping partners took delivery of the last of fifteen ice-breaking Arc7 LNG carriers. These highly specialized vessels transport liquefied natural gas from the Yamal facility off Russia’s Arctic coast to markets in Europe and Asia.

With the opening of the Novatek’s next project, Arctic LNG 2, just three years away, the company is looking for the timely construction of an additional 15 Arc7 LNG carriers.

While the original vessels were constructed by South Korean Daewoo Shipbuilding and Marine Engineering (DSME), China aims to secure contracts for this next batch of vessels. The country’s largest shipyard, Hudong Zhonghua which is a subsidiary of the China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation, has submitted a bid for up to 10 vessels. 

Novatek looking abroad to build new Arc7 vessels
As part of Russia’s policy to reinvigorate domestic shipbuilding activities, Novatek had originally intended to procure all 15 vessels for Arctic LNG 2 from the Zvezda shipyard located in Russia’s Far East near Vladivostok.

The shipyard entered into a partnership with Samsung Heavy Industries for the transfer of technology as Zvezda has little experience constructing ice-capable carriers. However, despite Samsung’s assistance, concerns remain about Zvezda’s ability to deliver the vessels on time....MORE

"Ukraine Billionaire Emerges As Buyer Of $220 Million French Home"

We looked at the property a few years ago, more after the jump:
From Bloomberg:

Rinat Akhmetov, Ukraine’s richest man, has emerged as the buyer of the historic Villa Les Cedres in the south of France.

The sprawling estate on the French Riviera is a “long-term investment”, according to a statement from Akhmetov’s SCM Holdings Limited. Davide Campari-Milano SpA agreed to sell the property last year for 200 million euros, or about $220 million at the time, the company said in August, without naming the buyer.

Akhmetov, who has amassed a $6.1 billion fortune according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, founded System Capital Management JSC, Ukraine’s largest industrial conglomerate. He also owns Shakhtar Donetsk Football Club.

The billionaire’s latest acquisition adds one of France’s most storied properties to a real estate portfolio that includes an apartment in London’s One Hyde Park development opposite the Harrods department store in Knightsbridge. His purchase of Villa Les Cedres was first reported by the Financial Times earlier Monday....MORE

In October 2017 it was:

For Sale: Big House, Nice 'Hood

From Bloomberg Businessweek:

Look Inside the Most Expensive House on Earth
An exclusive tour of Villa Les Cèdres, a 187-year-old mansion now for sale along the coast of Saint-Jean-Cap-Ferrat.

A living room at Villa Les Cèdres.

The South of France has been home to a revolving door of the superrich for the past century. As their fates rose, industrialists, princes, and bankers built palaces along the Mediterranean, and as they fell—first the Russian aristocracy, Americans after the 1929 stock market crash, then much of the European upper class after World War II—they sold them to the world’s next crop of newly wealthy.

Now the owner of Villa Les Cèdres, a 187-year-old, 18,000-square-foot, 14-bedroom mansion set on 35 acres, hopes that its property will be the next to pass from old money to new. With a list price of €350 million ($410 million), the owner, the Italian distiller Davide Campari-Milano SpA, is betting that the house’s combination of history, luxury, and a prime location along the coast of Saint-Jean-Cap-Ferrat will be enough to make it the most expensive residential sale in history.

Les Cèdres was built in 1830 and bought in 1850 by the mayor of Villefranche-sur-Mer, when it operated as an olive tree farm. (There are olive trees more than 300 years old on the grounds.) The mayor’s descendants sold the property to the Belgian King Leopold II in 1904, who, made stupendously rich by his exploitation of mineral resources and rubber trees in the Congo Free State (now the Democratic Republic of Congo), expanded the gardens that still surround the home.

The gates of the villa open to a long, winding path, flanked by towering palms and the cedar trees (cèdres in French) that give the house its name. A bronze statue of Athena, draped with a marble tunic, stands guard at the front entrance. Inside, the vibe is decadent and slightly weathered, consistent with the estate’s Belle Epoque heyday: grand sitting rooms, chandeliers, French doors, and floor-to-ceiling 19th century portraits in ornate frames. A wood-paneled library holds 3,000 books on flora and naturalism, including a 1640 edition of a botanical codex worth several hundred thousand euros. (The furnishings can also be bought with the home.)

In 1924, 15 years after Leopold’s death, Villa Les Cèdres was acquired by the Marnier-Lapostolle family, industrialists best known for producing Grand Marnier liqueur, a blend of cognac and triple sec. For 80 years the family cultivated the exotic plants that fill the manicured grounds. According to chief gardener and conservationist Marc Teissier, it was in the orchards near the home that the family harvested bigarades, the bitter oranges used to flavor Grand Marnier.

Les Cèdres remained in the Marnier-Lapostolle family until 2016, when Campari acquired Société des Produits Marnier Lapostolle (SPML), Grand Marnier’s parent company. Confronted with a piece of property that could be worth 20 percent of its gross 2016 sales, Campari almost immediately put the mansion on the market through the real estate agent Savills....MUCH MORE

Businessweek has some nice pictures but for a pic of the neighborhood here's the Hindu:

ThisIsMoney also has some nice photos.

"IHS Markit Data : Six New Records Set by LNG Industry in 2019"

From LNG Global Jan 21, 2020:

2019 was a record-shattering year for the LNG industry according to a new report by IHS Markit. The report, 2019: A Year of Records for LNG, notes the records are indicative of a sustained growth trend. Global LNG capacity expected to increase by more than 50%—from 283 million metric tonne per annum (MMtpa) in 2015 to 437 MMtpa in 2020 according to the report.

“The ongoing pace of new investment is especially noteworthy considering a market context of weak global prices,” said Michael Stoppard, chief strategist, global gas at IHS Markit. “Not only did LNG grow at an unprecedented rate in 2019, but the industry also laid the foundations for continued strong growth into the middle of the decade.”

Key records set by the LNG industry in 2019 were:

 

Record levels of new investment. Final investment decisions (FIDs) for liquefaction projects were made at an extraordinary level of 70.4 million tons per year (MMtpa)—40% higher than the previous all-time high reached in 2005 (50.4 MMtpa). The United States, Russia, and Mozambique each set individual highs for levels of annual FIDs.

*****

New global supply leader. Australia surpassed Qatar as the top LNG exporter for 2019, reaching 80.2 MMt relative to 72.5 MMt in 2018. Australia is expected to extend its lead in 2020 and retain its position as top exporter until 2023 when the United States is projected to become the largest LNG producer.

Record European imports. Europe set records for imports each single month as well as for the year as whole. Annual net imports totaled 87.2 MM tons which exceeded the previous record of 65.5 MM tons set in 2011. Imports are expected to remain strong in 2020 due to additional new liquefaction supply coming to market. New supply in 2020 is expected to outpace Asian demand growth and therefore maintain sales into Europe....

....MORE

Pioneer Fund Manager On Investing in Aquaculture

From The Fish Site:

A pioneer's guide to investing in aquaculture

On the fifth anniversary of their first investment in aquaculture, Mike Velings, co-founder of Aqua-Spark, explains how the fund, the aquaculture investment landscape and the industry in general, have changed over the last five years.

With 18 companies in its portfolio Aqua-Spark is in rude health and its co-founder Mike Velings feels that their hard work is beginning to pay off.

“We’d raised €6.9 million by the start of 2015, and now have €123.6 million of assets under management. We expect it to grow to about €200 million over the coming year and for the value of our assets to continue to grow until at least 2030,” he says.

The speed at which the value of the portfolio is growing is proving very encouraging.
“Reaching the €100 million mark a few months ago was a bit of a milestone. Having got lucky with some of our investments we’re starting to see some acceleration in how they develop, which is really affecting the fund and attracting a different type of attention,” he reflects.

As the portfolio grows so does the company and Velings believes that fine-tuning his approach to investing in the sector is helping them start to gain ground more rapidly.

“We currently have a team of 15 but will probably reach 20 people by the end of 2020 – the tone is changing a little bit; there’s been an increase in professionalism. We’ve always believed in our model, but it seems like we’re now starting to see proof that doing something differently is paying off,” he explains. 

Early days
While Velings may have made his first investment in aquaculture in 2015 he had, he explained, laid a considerable amount of groundwork beforehand. Indeed, his interest in aquaculture emerged at least four years previously, having been initially sceptical of an industry that tended to be viewed with outright hostility by environmentalists.

He explains that it stemmed from a commitment to marine conservation, which was what led him to a TED-organised floating ocean conference called Mission Blue in the Galápagos in 2011. While afloat on the Pacific he met Amy Novogratz – who was to become his partner “both in life and in business” – and the pair resolved to investigate ways to safeguard marine resources.....

....MUCH MORE

"Can the American casket monopoly be disrupted?" (HI; MATW)

What?

Why? Oh no reason, certainly not a ghoulish search for second-order effects and third-derivative pandemic trades.

From The Hustle:
Today, two companies control 82% of all casket sales in the United States. But can a new crop of more affordable and sustainable options shake things up?

As Ben Franklin once quipped, death is one of the only certainties in life. And with that certainty comes an endless supply of customers.

Every year, 2.8m people die in the US. Around 40% of them opt to be buried — most commonly, in a casket. A $550m-per-year business, caskets make up a healthy portion of the much larger $20B death industry.

The market for burials has never been more flooded with options. You can now spend your post-life years buried in a bodysuit fashioned out of mushrooms, in a pod that turns you into a tree, or in an IKEA-style casket you assemble yourself. Whatever your post-mortem niche, there’s probably a startup for it.

But despite this abundance of businesses, efforts to re-envision the casket industry have largely fallen flat.
That’s because today, the vast majority of people who opt to bury a loved one buy a wooden casket from a traditional funeral home — a market that is almost entirely monopolized by two industry behemoths: Batesville (a subsidiary of the even bigger Hillenbrand Inc.) and Matthews International Corporation.

Together, these two companies claim a whopping 82% market share, making the casket industry one of the most consolidated sectors of the US economy.
How did this happen? And why has this particular industry been so resistant to change?

The origins of a monopoly The for-profit casket industry traces back to the mid-18^th century when cabinet makers began advertising casket services alongside their regular furniture work.

In the late 1800s, the Civil War (and, strangely, the embalming of President Lincoln’s body) spawned a mass production of caskets. Across the country, hundreds of regional casket-making operations sprang up to meet the public’s new demand.

Among them was Batesville, a small manufacturer launched in 1884 by a handful of craftsmen in Indiana....MORE

One thing that always used to amuse was the fact that Hillenbrand was a major manufacturer of stretchers/gurneys and hospital beds, in addition to Batesville Casket.
They pretty much had your horizontality needs covered, from the time the ambulance pulled up until the hearse departed.
They split the businesses in 2008, Hillenbrand got the box biz, Hill-Rom (HRC) the beds.

The Weak El Niño Weakens Further and Once Weakened Moves On*

*Apologies to Omar Kayyam.
From IRI/Columbia:

IRI ENSO Forecast
2020 January Quick Look
Published: January 21, 2020

A monthly summary of the status of El Niño, La Niña, and the Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, based on the NINO3.4 index (120-170W, 5S-5N)

Use the navigation menu on the right to navigate to the different forecast sections
SSTs in the east-central Pacific were near the borderline of weak El Niño levels during mid-January. Patterns in atmospheric variables have mainly maintained neutral conditions, with some trends toward El Niño. Most model forecasts favor borderline weak El Niño SST conditions during winter, returning to ENSO-neutral by early spring and beyond. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts....MORE

IRI/CPC ENSO Predictions Plume
Published: January 19, 2020

Note on interpreting model forecasts
The following graph and table show forecasts made by dynamical and statistical models for SST in the Nino 3.4 region for nine overlapping 3-month periods. Note that the expected skills of the models, based on historical performance, are not equal to one another. The skills also generally decrease as the lead time increases. Thirdly, forecasts made at some times of the year generally have higher skill than forecasts made at other times of the year--namely, they are better when made between June and December than when they are made between February and May. Differences among the forecasts of the models reflect both differences in model design, and actual uncertainty in the forecast of the possible future SST scenario.

*“The Moving Finger writes; and, having writ,
Moves on: nor all thy Piety nor Wit
Shall lure it back to cancel half a Line,
Nor all thy Tears wash out a Word of it.”

So you're saying I'm stuck with it?

Nassim Taleb et al On Coronavirus

Mr. Taleb is one of the authors of this short piece.

HOW TO REACT TO PANDEMICS can be dowloaded belo@normonics,  @yaneerbaryam #ChinaCoronaVirus #China
https://t.co/N0TGkbx94f pic.twitter.com/WH79rULG9d

— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) January 26, 2020

See also Saturday's ""The Unforgiving Math That Stops Epidemics""

"Michael Avenatti searched 'Nike put options' and 'insider trading' before allegedly trying to extort the sportswear giant"

Obviously not Familiar with Professor Levine's work on this subject.*
From Business Insider:

• Lawyer Michael Avenatti searched for "Nike put options" and items related to "insider trading" online before his alleged extortion of the company for up to $25 million, according to a court filing dated January 24.
• Avenatti represents Gary Franklin, who accused Nike of hiding illegal payments to college basketball recruits.
• The attorney also visited the Nasdaq's website for Nike stock to find prices for options contracts, Fox Business first reported.
• Avenatti didn't trade Nike stock and isn't charged with insider trading.

Famous attorney Michael Avenatti may have been looking to profit from trading Nike stock options before his alleged extortion of the company for up to $25 million, a court filing dated January 24 revealed.

Avenatti represents Gary Franklin, who accused Nike of hiding illegal payments to basketball recruits. The lawyer searched "nike put options" and items related to "insider trading" on March 10 and after taking Franklin's case. Avenatti also visited the Nasdaq's website to monitor Nike's stock price and find pricing for options tied to the sneaker giant's stock.

The internet searches took place less than two weeks before Avenatti was arrested and charged with federal extortion and bank and wire fraud. Federal prosecutors allege Avenatti threatened to publicize accusations that Nike illegally paid families of college recruits unless the company paid him and another lawyer between $15 million and $25 million to conduct an internal investigation.
The attorney isn't charged with insider trading and did not trade Nike stock.

Fox Business first reported on the latest court filing and the web searches.

Avenatti attorney Scott Srebnick motioned to exclude the searches from evidence in the case against Avenatti, calling them "irrelevant" to the case.....MORE

*That's Matt Levine who writes at Bloomberg in addition to tickling my funnybone.

 

Disclaimer: None of this is legal advice.

§ Laws of Insider Trading

1. Don't do it.
2. Don’t do it by buying short-dated out-of-the-money call options on merger targets.
3. Don’t text or email about it.
4. Don’t do it in your mother’s account.
5. Don’t do it by planting bombs at a company and shorting its stock.
6. Don’t do it while employed at the Securities and Exchange Commission.
7. Don’t Google “how to insider trade without getting caught” before doing it.
8. If you didn’t insider trade, don’t forget and accidentally confess to insider trading.
9. If you are going to insider trade, do it in a company that is far away from a Securities and Exchange Commission office. Like, physically.
10. If you are already under a federal ethics investigation about your ownership or promotion of a stock, don’t insider trade that stock.
11. If you are planning to insider trade, probably don’t keep a Google Doc spreadsheet of the Money Stuff Laws of Insider Trading. That will definitely show up in the SEC’s complaint against you. If you’re gonna insider trade, you have to keep track of these rules in your head, even at the risk of forgetting a few now and then.
12. If you insider trade by buying short-dated out-of-the-money call options on a merger target, and the SEC freezes your profits, don’t show up in a U.S. court to ask for them back.
    • Corollary: go ahead and show up in court to ask for them back as long as you’ve deleted all the evidence first.

§ Additional Information

See Section 10b5, which clarifies the SEC's stance on insider trading with material nonpublic information.
This site was inspired by Matt Levine's Money Stuff articles, where insider trading and how not to do it are a recurring theme.

Source available on GitHub

https://lawsofinsidertrading.com/.

"10-Year Treasury Yield & Viral Outbreaks"

From Isabelnet's twitter feed:

🇺🇸 10-Year Treasury Yield & Viral Outbreaks

The chart shows that the impact of previous viral outbreaks (SARS, H1N1, H7N9, Ebola) on bonds has been short-lived 👉 https://t.co/J8O1uboYvU

ht @Schuldensuehner #markets#coronavirus #yields #bonds #bondmarket #treasuries #investing pic.twitter.com/t8f9NXCsS0

— ISABELNET (@ISABELNET_SA) January 27, 2020

It's Time For Big Tech To Decide If They Are Platforms or Publishers (FB; GOOG; TWTR; AMZN)

Okay, maybe allowing big tech to make the call is too weak-willed. Maybe they should be told they are one or the other.
From the University of Chicago's ProMarket, January 17:

How to Change Section 230 and Make Digital Platforms More Accountable
If elected, former Vice President and current Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden promised to “revoke immediately” the 1996 provision that gave tech companies like Facebook protection from civil liability for harmful or misleading content published on their platforms. The Stigler Center Committee on Digital Platforms has a proposal to fix the problem.

In a surprising statement, former Vice President and current Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden announced that, if elected president, he’d seek to repeal one of the most crucial pieces of legislation related to digital platforms, Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act. According to this 1996 provision, “No provider or user of an interactive computer service shall be treated as the publisher or speaker of any information provided by another information content provider.” Biden, who has personally clashed with Facebook to have a defamatory political ad removed, said he wants to make social networks more accountable for the content they host, the way newspapers already are.

“[The New York Times] can’t write something you know to be false and be exempt from being sued. But [Mark Zuckerberg] can. The idea that it’s a tech company is that Section 230 should be revoked, immediately should be revoked, number one. For Zuckerberg and other platforms,” Biden said in an interview with The New York Times.

“If there’s proven harm that Facebook has done, should someone like Mark Zuckerberg be submitted to criminal penalties, perhaps?” The Times’ editors asked Biden, who replied: “He should be submitted to civil liability and his company to civil liability, just like you would be here at The New York Times.”
Structural reform of Section 230 is also one of the policy proposals made by the recent Stigler Center Committee on Digital Platforms’ final report. The independent and non-partisan Committee—composed of more than 30 highly-respected academics, policymakers, and experts—spent over a year studying in-depth how digital platforms such as Google and Facebook impact the economy and antitrust laws, data protection, the political system, and the news media industry.

What follows is the Committee’s analysis of Section 230, its origins, and how digital platforms have used it far beyond its original scope, as well as the Committee’s proposals on how to amend it to improve the accountability of digital platforms, reduce the unfair subsidy they receive through the legal shield provided to them by Section 230, and improve the quality of the public debate without limiting freedom of speech.

The Origin of Section 230
Section 230 was enacted as part of the Telecommunications Act of 1996 to govern internet service providers (ISPs). The ISP to the ordinary publisher in 1996 was something like the scooter to automobiles today: a useful invention, but one hardly on the verge of dominance.

Tarleton Gillespie writes: “At the time Section 230 was crafted, few social media platforms existed. US lawmakers were regulating a web largely populated by ISPs and web ‘publishers’—amateurs posting personal pages, companies designing stand-alone websites, and online communities having discussions.”

Although sometimes viewed as a sweeping libertarian intervention, Section 230 actually began life as a smut-busting provision: an amendment for the “Protection for Private Blocking and Screening of Offensive Material.” Its purpose was to allow and encourage internet service providers to create safe spaces, free of pornography, for children.

The goals at the time of adoption were (1) to give new “interactive computer services” breathing room to develop without lawsuits “to promote the continued development of the Internet,” while (2) also encouraging them to filter out harmful content without fear of getting into trouble for under- or over-filtering. Thus, Section 230 is both a shield to protect speech and innovation and a sword to attack speech abuses on platforms.

The shield part is embodied in Section 230(c)(1): “No provider or user of an interactive computer service shall be treated as the publisher or speaker of any information provided by another information content provider.” This is not blanket immunity for the distribution of content, and indeed platforms are still liable for their own content, and for federal crimes and copyright violations related to third-party content. The immunity is really limited to the speech-related harms that publishers ordinarily face such as defamation and intentional infliction of emotional distress. In other words, a platform like Facebook remains liable for distributing child pornography, which is federal criminal content. It also remains liable for Facebook-authored defamatory content.

Facebook cannot, however, be held secondarily liable for defamatory content posted by its users.

The sword part of Section 230 is contained in Section 230(c)(2)(A): “No provider or user of an interactive computer service shall be held liable on account of any action voluntarily taken in good faith to restrict access to or availability of material that the provider or user considers being obscene, lewd, lascivious, filthy, excessively violent, harassing, or otherwise objectionable.”

This was designed to avoid the paradoxical situation in which an intermediary tries to moderate its platform to reduce harmful content, but then is subject to liability because it has exercised editorial control....

....MORE

Also at ProMarket:
January 23
“We Were Naïve,” Says FCC Chair Who Oversaw the Creation of Section 230

Recently:
The Various Tribes Have Chosen The Platform They Will Defend (FB; TWTR; GOOG; AMZN)