Thursday, September 18, 2025

"Moody’s stuns with urgent call on Oracle’s future" (ORCL)

From TheStreet, September 18:

Fresh verdict raises big questions for Oracle  

Oracle’s  (ORCL) AI land grab has gotten a lot bigger over the past few weeks.

Just days after announcing a five-year, $300 billion deal to funnel 4.5 gigawatts of compute to OpenAI, Oracle’s pipeline isn’t just swelling; it’s locking in.

Moreover, its Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) surged 359% year-over-year to $455 billion, with the management hinting that the figure will soon top the half-trillion mark.

That incredible scale has effectively reshaped Oracle’s balance sheet and its positioning in the AI narrative.

2025 has mostly been a blur of data-center buildouts, mega contracts, and a cloud business that’s become Oracle’s center of gravity. On top of that, Oracle stock has run red-hot this year, and is tracking over 81% higher on a year-to-date basis. Over a 6-month period, those gains jump even higher at 96%.

However, just days following its brand spanking new deal, Moody’s analysts just dropped a shock call that matters as much as the contract itself. If the firm’s read is correct, the call will likely have many implications for backlog quality, cash-flow timing, and how the market perceives Oracle’s growth machine.

Moody’s highlights counterparty risk in Oracle’s AI megadeal
Moody’s raised a major red flag on Oracle’s much-touted $300 billion AI infrastructure deal with OpenAI.

Though the contract marks the largest in Oracle’s history, analysts at the firm believe that the concentration puts outsized financial pressure on the company if OpenAI stumbles....

....MUCH MORE