Tuesday, May 6, 2025

Capital Markets: "PBOC Returns and Helps Stabilize Local FX"

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex:

Overview: China's mainland markets re-opened after the extended holiday, and the by setting the dollar's reference rate little changed from its last fix helped inject a note of stability into the local Asian currencies. Indeed, most of them pulled back today, including the Taiwan dollar and the Malaysian ringgit. The yuan and yen are firmer. In fact, the yen's roughly 0.35% gain puts it atop the G10 scoreboard today, though more broadly, the greenback is mixed. There has been much speculation that the US could announce tariffs on semiconductors as early as tomorrow. While they are coming, we are skeptical about tomorrow. As we note below, the period for public commentary ends tomorrow at midnight. Can there really be a tariff announcement ahead of it?

Chinese and Hong Kong equities as did Singapore. Japanese and South Korean markets were still closed today for holidays and re-open tomorrow. Many of the other bourses in the region fell. Europe's Stoxx 600 is snapping a 10-day rally and is off around 0.8% in late European morning turnover. US index futures are under pressure and the Nasdaq futures are off around 1% with the S&P 500 down about 0.7%. Benchmark 10-year bonds are selling off, and yields jumped 6-7 bp in Australia and New Zealand. They are mostly 2-3 bp higher in Europe and the US 10-year Treasury yield is up almost two basis points to 4.36%. Gold, which fell in the past two weeks, is extending yesterday's nearly 3% recovery with another 1.3% gain. The yellow metal bottomed last week near $3200 and has approached $3390 today. June WTI held $55 yesterday and settled near session highs after gapping lower. It is building on yesterday's recovery and is near $58.75 in Europe....

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