If Canada's Prime Minister brings up fentanyl in today's meeting with President Trump I would take that as a 'tell' to short the Vancouver real estate market. The Canadian position has been that there is no fentanyl problem, either in Canada or crossing the 49th Parallel.
From the Wall Street Journal, May 2:
Addressing Trump team’s concerns over China’s role in fentanyl crisis could let both sides soften trade stance
Beijing is considering ways to address the Trump administration’s concerns over China’s role in the fentanyl trade, according to people familiar with the matter, potentially offering an off-ramp from hostilities to allow for trade talks to start.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s security czar, Wang Xiaohong, in recent days has been inquiring about what the Trump team wants China to do when it comes to the chemical ingredients used to make fentanyl, the people said. Chinese companies produce large quantities of the chemicals known as “precursors.” These are sold over the internet, flowing from China to criminal groups in Mexico and elsewhere that produce fentanyl and traffic it into the U.S.
Part of Beijing’s thinking involves dispatching Wang, who is the minister of public security and a senior leader within the State Council, China’s cabinet, to the U.S. to meet with senior Trump officials, the people said, or have him meet with U.S. officials in a third country.
The discussions remain fluid, the people cautioned, while adding that Beijing would like to see some softening from President Trump on his trade offensive against China.
The latest development in Beijing comes as its trade war with the U.S., which has led to both sides essentially imposing trade embargoes on each other, is starting to take a toll on a Chinese economy already struggling with a multiyear property crisis, deflationary pressure and weak consumer and business confidence.
While the Xi leadership is preparing the nation for a long struggle against the U.S., continuing to strengthen central control over the economy and overall society, the intensifying economic pain also provides Beijing with incentives to engage with Washington to alleviate the near-term pressure.
In a clear shift in tone Friday, China’s Commerce Ministry said it was weighing starting talks with the U.S. to halt a trade war, while expressing Beijing’s wish for the Trump administration to “show sincerity” to talk. Previously, the ministry had demanded that Washington slash its steep tariffs on China first as a condition for negotiations.
“Fentanyl can be the icebreaker for the two countries to start with a more positive tone,” said Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center, a Washington think tank. “Both sides are eager to get some negotiations started.”
Soon after starting his second presidency, Trump hit China with 20% tariffs over its role in a drug-overdose crisis that kills tens of thousands of Americans every year. Beijing refused to engage at the time, with Chinese officials arguing that the U.S. was using the fentanyl issue as a pretext for its trade assault on China....
....MUCH MORE
