Having observed Mr. Son and his position in the parade—from Drum Majorette leading the way, to being the guy cleaning up after the elephants, and then back to the front— we had this introduction in February 2024:
Since the time he almost went broke after the dot.bomb bubble burst (he had briefly been the richest person in the world) I've come to realize this guy isn't some great visionary/grand strategist; he's just leveraged beta. Making big bets, all geared up, on whatever is at the head of the passing parade.
That said, he owns 90% of ARM Holdings and I don't.
Bastard.
More after the jump.
From Bloomberg, October 2/3:
The SoftBank chief said he asked the model difficult questions, hoping to stump the AI, but got good responses within 45 seconds. His queries included how he can increase his savings account to ¥100 million ($680,000) and how to extend the range of electric car batteries.
“The human brain consists of some 100 trillion synaptic connections,” Son said. That number hasn’t and won’t change, even in 1,000 years. “Generative AI’s parameters — which are the equivalent to these synapses — are growing at a furious pace,” he said.
A reasoning AI will need to be able to talk and negotiate with others when conducting complex tasks like settling on a price for a service or making sure the bath is full and at the user’s desired temperature at the right time, Son said. All that will drive the need for more connectivity and require more chips using technology from SoftBank’s Arm Holdings Plc, he added....
....MORE
My favorite Son quote was his advice to Adam Neumann of WeWork (Softbank's investment in WeWork eventually totaled $16 billion):
“I told Adam not to be proud that WeWork was growing organically without a large sales force or spending big marketing dollars,” Softbank boss Masayoshi Son told Forbes after Softbank’s first investment in 2017. “Make it ten times bigger than your original plan. If you think in that manner, the valuation is cheap.” He added, “It can be worth a few hundred billion dollars.”
That may be some of the worst career advice ever. But probably not the worst:
an internship at the white house will be amazing on your resume. 😳
— Monica Lewinsky (she/her) (@MonicaLewinsky) July 14, 2019
See also:
November 2019
SoftBank’s problems aren’t so surprising if you understand this one thing about the company
Throughout the manic phase of SoftBank and the Vision fund there was
almost no mention of the fact that at the start of this century
Masayoshi Son was the richest person in the world:
"But Son’s fairytale didn’t last long. After the dot-com bubble burst, his company Softbank’s shares plunged 75 percent in two months and was 93 percent lower by the end of 2000.We had a couple posts around the time of the above that touched on the craziness but not the past history:
The business almost went bankrupt and Son ended up losing USD 70 billion, the highest ever recorded financial loss for a person in history."
—MoneyControl, October 13, 2017
SoftBank In Talks To Acquire U.S. Treasury
Sprint, T-Mobile Plunge: SoftBank Calling Off Merger, Will Use Cash to Buy Canada
See also semi-variance, after the jump....
....When the swings are as big as Son's are you need a bankroll that is gigantic. Even if you are right and have an edge, the natural variation can kill you and the last downturn will be the last downturn....
- What Proportion of Your Bankroll Should You Bet? "A New Interpretation of Information Rate"
- Gambler's Ruin and Bet Sizing
- Markets, Risk and Gambler's Ruin
- Repost: Dreamtime Finance (and the Kelly Criterion)
Finally, another rule of life:
Cassandra's (Not so) Golden Rules About Investing (And Not Investing)Don't double down, double up.
#21. NEVER double-down (except when you have material non-public information and deep pockets) or if you're Ed Thorp, or if you're playing at The Martingale Room.
