Sunday, August 4, 2024

Power Requirements: "Goldman Says Mid-Atlantic Power Prices 'Finally Caught Up To AI Data Center Load Growth Story'"

A twofer. First up, ZeroHedge with the headline story, August 3:

Marylanders and residents in surrounding states should brace for rising power bills due to capacity constraints on the regional power grid and the increasing peak load from new AI data centers (read: here). This combination creates a perfect storm of continued utility bill inflation, which will only pressure cash-strapped households in the years ahead. 

On Friday, Goldman published a note about Tuesday's PJM Interconnection power capacity auction for the 2025-26 planning year (June 1st, 2025, to May 31st, 2026). The note revealed a massive surge in capacity prices: 

"The price across the RTO (see map below) was $269.92/MW- day. This is more than an 800 percent increase from the most recent auction (which cleared at $28.92/MW-day), and also a new record (the previous high was $174.11/MW-day for the 2010- 2011 planning year)."

"In addition to procuring the required capacity across the PJM RTO region, PJM's auction also sets targets for specific zones or LDAs (Locational Deliverability Areas) based on transmission limitations. The auction failed to procure the required level of capacity in two zones (Dominion or "DOM" and Baltimore Gas and Electric or "BGE ") which cleared at the applicable caps of $444.26/MW-day (DOM) and $466.35/MW-day (BGE). PJM has not yet published the extent of the shortfall in the two zones."

The critical point from the report:....

And across the Potomac via the Washington Post, July 29:

Fairfax plans to regulate data centers amid concerns about industry’s growth
A zoning change would dictate where data centers can be built in Fairfax, following steps by other localities worried about energy use, noise and other problems

But what if the CIA and Bezos need more compute?