OpEd from Barron's, April 12:
About the author: Alix Guerrier is the chief executive of DonorsChoose.
It’s been four years since the height of the Covid pandemic left schools closed across the country. School doors have long since reopened, but the consequences of a disrupted education are still lingering for the cohort of Covid students. This learning loss is on course to cause even greater disruption to our students’ futures and to our economy as a whole.
The U.S. education system drives our economy. Our skilled workforce enables us to lead the world in innovation and to be at the forefront of a wide range of industries. But pandemic learning loss threatens our ability to meet workforce demands and remain competitive on the global stage. Preventing this long-term economic problem requires collective urgency beyond the education sector.
As a former teacher, I know firsthand how much kids depend on consistency in their educational environment, and how challenging it can be for them when that is interrupted. We owe it to our students and our nation to invest in learning recovery so that they are back on track to reach their full academic potential.
Recent data confirms that Covid-19 set student progress in math and reading back by decades
. Most students from that cohort are still behind their 2019 counterparts and likely will be for years to come. Students who already faced challenges are falling even further behind. Existing gaps in test scores based on student race, ethnicity, and economic background are widening in Covid’s wake.
It’s getting harder to catch up. Students in the Covid-era cohort are losing talented teachers, many of whom are burning out and leaving the field. Mental health issues are growing, with more than 40% of students reporting persistent feelings of sadness or hopelessness in the CDC’s latest Youth Risk Behavior Survey. Chronic absenteeism worsened during the pandemic, which can lead to falling grades and test scores and make students more likely to drop out.
The repercussions are alarming for our students and economy. What happens to our industries if Covid-cohort students cannot catch up? Economists predict this generation will experience long-term economic losses. One estimate is that Covid-era students will see 6% lower lifetime earnings, with Black students likely to suffer a drop two percentage points worse. Another analysis suggests that a near $200 billion drop in GDP for every year that the Covid-cohort is in the workforce is possible. The economic drag from this lower-skilled workforce is projected over time to cost the economy six times more than the entire economic losses of the 2007-2009 recession....
....MUCH MORE
The estimated hit to GDP faced by these cohorts as quoted in the Education Next piece, "Generation Lost: The Pandemic’s Lifetime Tax" is $28 trillion though is based on this paper (page 3 of 24), published at Hoover February 29:
....Based on the available research on lifetime earnings associated with more skills, the average student in school during the pandemic will lose 5 to 6 percent of lifetime earnings. Because a lower-skilled workforce leads to lower economic growth, the nation will lose some $31 trillion (in present value terms) during the twenty-first century. This aggregate economic loss is higher than the US GDP for one year and dwarfs the total economic losses from either the slowdown of the economy during the pandemic or from the 2008 recession.
It is also possible to assess how the economic costs of the pandemic were spread across the United States. Students from different states can expect to lose widely different proportions of their future earnings. Whereas the students from Utah, who on average suffered the lowest learning losses in the nation, can expect 2 percent lower lifetime earnings, this economic loss climbs to 9 percent for the students in Delaware and Oklahoma....
Here's the lead author https://hanushek.stanford.edu/. Other researchers seem to cite him a lot. A lot.
The per year figure is from McKinsey (2001) totaling $7.5 trillion in lower lifetime earnings, which seems exceptionally low compared to other research, perhaps because it came out relatively soon after the lockdowns. We happened to catch it when it came out.
"Nuremberg II: What a Real Inquiry into the Response to Covid Would Look Like"
I hope the people who spent over two years on their covid jihad, destroying lives and livelihoods, retarding the education of an entire generation of children, twisting facts to fit a corrupt agenda, I hope they understand there were millions of people keeping receipts, and that the receipt-keepers won't be trying to shame their persecutors, for they know they feel no shame. They will be seeking justice, and possibly vengeance, against the entire class that oppressed them.I think I will retreat to the castle keep for a couple years and just observe how things play out.
If you'll excuse me, there's a drawbridge to be raised, can't take too many precautions against the risk of misidentification. I'd prefer the last sound I hear not be the mob baying "À la lanterne!"
We've visited the author of this piece, Michael Senger a few times, usually identifying him as a San Francisco Attorney. I'm wondering now if he somewhat fancies himself in the role of the chief American prosecutor at Nuremberg, Justice Jackson....
