Tuesday, February 6, 2024

Leonardo DiCaprio Takes Down A Copper Miner

Well not all by himself. He had Greta's help.

From Mining.com, January 31:

Activists, Hollywood take down top 50 mining company

The ranks of the most valuable mining companies in the world were throughly scrambled in 2023 as governments intervened, lithium and nickel prices tumbled, gold hit records and a new listing went ballistic.

At the end of 2023, the MINING.COM TOP 50* ranking of the world’s most valuable miners reached a combined $1.42 trillion, up a healthy, if far from spectacular $48.7 billion over the course of 2023. Mining’s top tier is also worth $330 billion less than in March 2022.

Metal and mineral markets are volatile at the best of times – the nickel, cobalt and lithium price collapse in 2023 was extreme but not entirely unprecedented. Rare earth producers, platinum group metal watchers, iron ore followers, and gold and silver bugs for that matter, have been through worse.

Mining companies have become better at navigating choppy waters and as a whole the majors performed fairly consistently last year despite geopolitical and market turmoil, but within the ranking, 2023 fortunes were made and lost over what seemed like days.

The forced closure of one of the world’s biggest copper mines – and the subsequent collapse of owner First Quantum Minerals stock – served as a stark reminder of the outsized risks miners face over and above market swings.

Panama root canal
After months of protests and political pressure, at the end of November the Panama government ordered the closure of First Quantum Minerals’ Cobre Panama mine following a ruling by the Supreme Court that declared the mining contract for the operation unconstitutional.

Public figures, including climate activist Greta Thunberg and Hollywood actor Leonardo Di Caprio backed the protests and shared a video calling for the “mega mine” to cease operations, which quickly went viral. 

That mining cobre is at the nexus of the green energy transition is clearly an irony lost on those trying to save the world.  FQM is seeking arbitration and completely winding down operations will take time, but a reopening of Cobre Panama is not on the cards. 

From 25th position in the ranking at the end of March 2022 and a valuation well above $20 billion, the November-December sell off saw FQM drop out of the top tier altogether, ending 2023 at number 58 with a market cap below $6 billion. 

Cobre Panama supplied more than 40% of the company’s revenue, and with nickel prices plummeting FQM has also been forced to suspend operations at its Raventhorpe mine in Australia....

....MUCH MORE, the entire review is interesting.

Some previous posts on Cobre Panama:
December 2022
Copper: Panama Leaves Room For Reversal Of Giant Mine Shutdown Order; Protests In Peru Continue

Nov. 20, 2023
Copper: Canada's First Quantum May Have To Halt Operations At Their Big Mine In Panama (FM.tsx)
As noted in November 16's "ASIA COPPER WEEK-Split views in copper concentrate balance forecast drag on TC/RCs negotiations":

....Another type of extrinsic event is the unrest at the Cobre Panama operation of First Quantum. Earlier this year the Panamanian government brought operations to a standstill by using the port FM.tsx ships through as a bargaining chip. This latest imbroglio is the result of protests that may give political cover to the Supreme Court of Panama to pull the mining licenses. Additionally the port, Punta Rincón, is being blockaded.

When the earlier stoppages occurred we didn't get too concerned* as it is Panama's interest to keep the royalties coming. This time the situation is a bit riskier for First Quantum but one-way-or-another someone will mine the deposit. In the meantime taking 1% of global supply off the market may be enough to tip the supply/demand picture into a slight deficit.

And today, from the Associated Press:
A Canadian mining company at the center of Panama protests says it may have to suspend operations....
November 29, 2023
"Panama president directs First Quantum to shut copper mine after court ruling"
Definitely a good thing for the other miners, in particular Southern Peru and Freeport.Cobre Panama supplies about 1% of the world's copper ore and in the face of stalling electric vehicles sales (around 150 - 180 lbs. per), offshore wind (tons per) and China's failure to launch, reopening-wise, the closure will help keep the market in a slight (rather than expanding) surplus.

November 29, 2023
"Dwindling copper supply from Panama and Peru could wipe out global surplus in 2024"

December 4, 2023
"Panama may slash GDP growth view due to suspension of First Quantum mine"

January 14, 2024
Copper: "First Quantum's closed Panama copper mine targeted in fresh protest"