Monday, December 4, 2023

"Panama may slash GDP growth view due to suspension of First Quantum mine"

That's not all that is going to be slashed. Just before Panama's Supreme Court issued the order that led to the shutdown of Cobre Panama, First Quantum had signed new contracts with their employees. Those are some skilled and smart workers who aren't working.

From Reuters, December 4:

Exclusive: Panama may slash GDP growth view due to suspension of First Quantum mine

Panama is eyeing a sharp cut to its forecast for 2024 economic growth after a court ruling prompted the government to order the closure of Canadian miner First Quantum's (FM.TO) lucrative copper mine, a government official told Reuters.

Gross domestic product (GDP) growth might be 1-2% next year, down from a previous estimate of 5%, Hernan Arboleda, director of public policies at the economy and finance ministry, said in an interview on Friday.

President Laurentino Cortizo announced last week the government will move to shut First Quantum's Cobre Panama mine, which accounts for some 5% of the country's GDP, after the supreme court ruled that the contract was unconstitutional.

Panamanians have protested vehemently against the mine since October, arguing the contract was too generous and First Quantum has since lost over half of its market capitalization....

....MORE

Because the size of the mining operation is so large in comparison to Panama's economy our reaction to the first stoppage in March was pretty sanguine:

....When the earlier stoppages occurred we didn't get too concerned* as it is Panama's interest to keep the royalties coming. This time the situation is a bit riskier for First Quantum but one-way-or-another someone will mine the deposit. In the meantime taking 1% of global supply off the market may be enough to tip the supply/demand picture into a slight deficit....

—"ASIA COPPER WEEK-Split views in copper concentrate balance forecast drag on TC/RCs negotiations", November 16. 

Today supply/demand didn't matter as a rising dollar scared anyone short futures resulting in a 2 1/2% drop:

https://charts2-node.finviz.com/chart.ashx?cs=m&t=@HG&tf=d&s=linear&ct=candle_stick&r=&sf=2

FinViz