Thursday, January 11, 2024

Inflation—CPI Report: Analysts React

Our second visit to ZeroHedge today. Skipping their introduction, much of which was seen in the earlier post, and going straight to the analysts:  

....Here are some of the more notable comments in response to the CPI report:

Richard Flynn, managing director at Charles Schwab

Today’s increase in the rate of inflation will be a change that will likely be interpreted by the market as unwelcome, but unsurprising. If today’s report is the start of an upward pattern, there is a good chance that the Fed will delay rate cuts until later than previously expected. It looks like the market may have jumped the gun in penciling in as many as six Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2024.”

Seema Shah, Principal Asset Management

"The report underscores the fact that market participants had gotten a little overexcited around the timing of rate cuts. These are not bad numbers, but they do show that disinflation progress is still slow and unlikely to be a straight line down to 2%. Certainly, as long as shelter inflation remains stubbornly elevated, the Fed will keep pushing back at the idea of imminent rate cuts.”

Brian Coulton, chief economist at Fitch Ratings:

“Looking through the small rise in headline inflation - which was due to energy prices rising -- I think the message from this release is that core inflation is proving sticky....This will give the Fed grounds for caution and they are unlikely to cut rates as quickly as the markets currently expect.”

Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo, Goldman Sachs Asset Management,

"There is nothing in the report that will push the Fed to cut rates sooner. However, because it was not too hot, it should leave the hopes of a soft landing intact. Ultimately, we are focused on the labor market to dictate the speed and extent of the cutting cycle, and we continue to believe the middle of the year to be more appropriate to start.”....

....MUCH MORE