Yves here. I have to admit to suffering from a lack of sufficient imagination. When I saw the tweet below from guurst, I thought the motive was to put US/NATO ships at risk so as to strengthen the US case for other countries to join the inaptly named Operation Prosperity Guardian, to protect commercial commercial ships transiting from Houthi fire (as we and many others have described, much easier said than done). Over my pay grade, but one wonders why the many countries that opposed Israeli action in Gaza would go along (assuming they are). But having Chinese, Iranian and Indian warships in theater to keep tabs on the potentially not friendly Operation Prosperity Guardian warships.IMPORTANT ๐จ’Israel’ is endangering the world in the Red Sea:
— Military Eye (@MilitaryEye) December 20, 2023
At the beggining of operations, Yemen spokesperson instructed vessels to keep their Automatic Identification Systems (AIS) ON and that ๐ผ๐ป๐น๐ ๐๐ฒ๐๐๐ฒ๐น๐ ๐ฒ๐ป ๐ฟ๐ผ๐๐๐ฒ ๐๐ผ ๐๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ฒ๐น ๐๐ถ๐น๐น ๐ฏ๐ฒ… pic.twitter.com/LEVfckHLIbBy John Helmer, the longest continuously serving foreign correspondent in Russia, and the only western journalist to direct his own bureau independent of single national or commercial ties. Helmer has also been a professor of political science, and an advisor to government heads in Greece, the United States, and Asia. He is the first and only member of a US presidential administration (Jimmy Carter) to establish himself in Russia. Originally published at Dances with Bears
A Russian military blog post posted on Thursday, December 21 at 11:33 Moscow time, has revealed the hitherto secret positions of all warships in the area which the Pentagon has announced for its OPERATION PROSPERITY GUARDIAN.
The fresh data and the open map (lead image) were not available when yesterday’s report was published at 09:32 Moscow time of Russia’s “two-track” strategy for opposing the US and NATO, and for protecting Russian oil shipments while the Houthi drone and missile operations are under way against Israel.
No Russian Navy vessel is in the area at present although Russian crude oil cargoes are moving through the Red Sea with Iranian and Houthi agreement. Because these ship movements are defying US and NATO sanctions, it has been decided in Moscow to negotiate safe passage with Iran and Yemen rather than deploy the Russian Navy to protect them. However, the new combined US and NATO operation, targeting the Houthis and their Iranian support and supply systems, increases the possibility of a direct American, allied, or false-flagged attack on a tanker carrying Russian oil.
In yesterday’s morning report, I indicated that “the current whereabouts of the [Chinese] warship group has not been reported in the open press.”
The Russian source map is now reporting that the Chinese Navy’s 45th Escort Task Force, comprising the Type-052 destroyer Urumqi, the Type-547 frigate Linyi, and supply ship Dongpinghu were at berth at the Chinese base at Djibouti as of Wednesday, December 20.
The Russian map also reveals that the Iranian vessel MV Behshad is in a standing position in the Red Sea (lead image, top left of map). According to the Russian source, it is operating as an electronic surveillance, command and control centre to monitor friendly state ship movements – Russian, Chinese, Indian – and also hostile vessels of the US, British and French navies, tracking their positions; and relaying the data to Iran and probably to shore positions in Yemen. Although US media and Pentagon statements accuse the Ansar Allah government in Yemen and Houthi forces of acting as Iranian proxies in the war against Israel, there has been no disclosure before now of this vessel in the Red Sea....
....MUCH MORE
*July 25, 2021
"China & Egypt Strengthen Belt And Road Collaborations Including The Suez Canal International Logistics Zone"
I'm beginning to see a pattern here.*
From Silk Road Briefing, July 23:
Egypt’s Free Trade Agreements with AfCFTA and the EU make it an attractive Chinese investment destination to access new export markets
China and Egypt have signed a deal to establish an intergovernmental cooperation committee aimed at further enhancing bilateral relations, in an agreement signed by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and his Egyptian counterpart Sameh Shoukry. Wang is on an official visit to Egypt and has also visited Syria.
“Egypt is one of China’s most important strategic partners among Arab countries, in the Islamic world, in Africa and among developing countries,” Wang said, reiterating that Beijing appreciates Cairo for its support on issues concerning Beijing’s core interests and said China also supports Egypt in safeguarding its own sovereignty, security, and development interests.
“China is ready to work with Egypt to deepen the alignment of their development strategies, expand cooperation in production capacity, infrastructure, new energy, space and aviation, as well as new and high-tech industries, and open up new prospects for mutually beneficial cooperation,” he said, adding that China will continue to support Egypt’s localized production of vaccines to help the country fight Covid-19.
For his part, Shoukry said that “Egypt is willing to work with China to strengthen their cooperation in economy, trade, industry, science and technology within the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), expand people-to-people and cultural exchanges and maintain communication on the reform of the United Nations Security Council and other international and regional issues,” he added.
Egypt is currently regaining stability after the ”Arab Spring” disturbances and problems with fighting ISIL. It is a huge market of some 100 million people and an important regional player. Russia has also been making inroads into Egypt with a Special Economic Zone at Port Said near the mouth of the Suez Canal, building Egypt’s hi-speed Red-Mediterranean Sea railway and is shortly to conclude an Egyptian-Eurasian Economic Union free trade agreement....
And the Panama Canal:
China Will Help Panama Secure the Canal Against Terrorists
And
all of a sudden you have China on-site on three of the world's MAJOR
shipping chokepoints and what could very well become the fourth at the
Bering Straits.
....It's just that, as we've seen over the last year, supply lines are fragile, a weak spot even without unfriendlies doing an interdiction.
Should someone actively attempt to halt transportation it would make the Ever Given snafu look like child's play. As just one example, China has been very active in extending their belt and road initiative in Panama, including a $1.4 billion bridge over the canal and rail and other infrastructure.
And that's just one potential flashpoint. The Chinese influence in Brazil, hitherto based on VALE and iron ore could potentially go exponential as Brazil expands/modernizes its shipping and rail infrastructure. And then there's Australia...and...
I suppose somebody should keep an eye on Morocco to note if the Chinese set up camp on the Straits of Gibraltar.
—from "China & Egypt Strengthen Belt And Road Collaborations Including The Suez Canal International Logistics Zone", July 25, 2021
