From the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, December 8 update:
| Month | CPI | Core CPI | PCE | Core PCE | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 2023 | 0.41 | 0.33 | 0.34 | 0.28 | 12/08 |
| November 2023 | -0.01 | 0.33 | 0.08 | 0.28 | 12/08 |
| Note: If the cell is blank, it implies that the actual data corresponding to the month for that inflation measure have already been released. | |||||
The November number is what is being reported tomorrow.
As we guessed - an informed guess but still a guess - on November 12:
This may be the trough in the inflation numbers, with upticks to start again with the December report released in January 2024....
The current Nowcast is now looking for a fairly dramatic uptick in the number to be reported in January 2024. Here are the rolling Year-over-Year numbers which incorporate the current monthly and month-ahead numbers:
| Month | CPI | Core CPI | PCE | Core PCE | Updated | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 2023 | 3.34 | 3.98 | 3.00 | 3.36 | 12/08 | ||||||
| November 2023 | 3.04 | 4.06 | 2.86 | 3.46 | 12/08 | ||||||
| Note: If the cell is blank, it implies that the actual data corresponding to the month for that inflation measure have already been released. | |||||||||||
Last month's Nowcast as of November 12 was CPI 0.07% Month-over-Month; 3.28% Year-over-Year.
The BLS report on November 14 was:
...unchanged in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.4 percent in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.2 percent...
