The Cleveland Fed inflation Nowcast as of December 8 was at -0.01 for the month of November and 3.04% for the 12-months. The differences compared to the just reported 0.1% are rounding errors. The problematic release will be in the December figures released in January 2024. The Nowcast is looking for a 1 month figure of 0.4%, quite a step up in the headline number.
From the Bureau of Labor Statistics, December 12:
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, after being unchanged in October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.1 percent before seasonal adjustment.
The index for shelter continued to rise in November, offsetting a decline in the gasoline index. The energy index fell 2.3 percent over the month as a 6.0-percent decline in the gasoline index more than offset increases in other energy component indexes. The food index increased 0.2 percent in November, after rising 0.3 percent in October. The index for food at home increased 0.1 percent over the month and the index for food away from home rose 0.4 percent.
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in November, after rising 0.2 percent in October. Indexes which increased in November include rent, owners' equivalent rent, medical care, and motor vehicle insurance. The indexes for apparel, household furnishings and operations, communication, and recreation were among those that decreased over the month.
The all items index rose 3.1 percent for the 12 months ending November, a smaller increase than the 3.2-percent increase for the 12 months ending October. The all items less food and energy index rose 4.0 percent over the last 12 months, as it did for the 12 months ending October. The energy index decreased 5.4 percent for the 12 months ending November, while the food index increased 2.9 percent over the last year....
....MUCH MORE, including the tables where we see the shelter component up 0.4% for the month of November and up 6.5% for the last twelve months.
More to come.
