Tuesday, August 22, 2023

"Half a Million US Jobs at Risk of Vanishing in Payroll Revision"

 From Bloomberg via MSN, August 22:

US payrolls growth in the year through March is forecast to be weaker than current data illustrate — by one estimate about 500,000 jobs weaker.

JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Daniel Silver estimates Wednesday’s government preliminary benchmark revision will shave nearly half a million off the level of total employment for March, or about 40,000 fewer jobs per month over the 12-month period.

Even with a downward revision of that size, average job growth would still be strong at around 300,000 payrolls a month. As a result, the revisions would likely not fundamentally alter economists’ views on the health of the labor market. 

“While we expect the BLS preliminary estimates to indicate that payrolls growth has not been as strong as initially reported, revisions are not likely to be so large as to suggest a meaningful shift in labor market conditions,” said Oscar Munoz, chief US macro strategist at TD Securities.

Last year, the government’s employment reports consistently surprised economists with larger-than-expected payrolls gains. The figures were also a key reason behind a steady drumbeat of Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes as policymakers scrambled to contain inflation....