Thursday, October 20, 2022

"The mathematical formula that proves London is over"

Before we get to the headline piece, a quick look at British Parliamentary government:

via GIPHY

Hmmmm, there seems to be a lot of movement but I can't tell if any work is getting done.
And from Ogilvy U.K.'s vice-chairman*, Rory Sutherland writing at the Spectator, September 3:
Some years ago, an Australian neurologist was in the habit of walking barefoot across his lawn. This being Australia, the lawn was slightly prickly, and the experience was painful but not intolerable; until one day, when one of the pricks in his heel was more pronounced than usual. He had been bitten by a snake and, again this being Australia, the snake was highly venomous. Doctors saved his leg and he made a complete recovery. But there was one lasting side-effect: he now found walking across his lawn agonising.

In terms of the stimulus to his feet, nothing had changed. What had changed was how his brain processed the stimulus. What was once a mildly aversive discomfort was amplified by a learned fear into something much more painful.

My contention is that a similar mental process may have taken place in relation to many forms of travel, especially commuting. The daily grind of the journey to work wasn’t quite so onerous when you saw it as unavoidable; but after two years spent learning of easier alternatives, our reaction to the pain and cost of commuting every day has gone from grudging acceptance to extreme irritation.

I would be surprised not to see an exodus from megacities over the next few decades. But this isn’t only driven by psychology: it’s driven by pure mathematics. Let me explain.

First, there’s that old chestnut A = πr2. Area increases exponentially with distance. Within one mile of work, there are three and a bit square miles of space available. Within 100 miles, there are 31,416. The odds of finding somewhere affordable and pleasant increase enormously with distance.

But there is also the Sutherland number. I am calling it the Sutherland number in an unlikely bid to attain the highest kind of immortality, which is to have a number named after you (Dunbar, Planck, Bohr, Ramanujan). The Sutherland number is 6.25.

Here’s how you arrive at it. In the old days, if you decided to move from London to, say, Whitstable, you made a heavy tradeoff. You enjoyed two days, typically Saturday and Sunday, by the seaside, but the price you paid was five days of a lengthy and costly commute. Two nicer days in return for five much crappier days; a ratio of 5:2. Now, however, if you only have to travel into London two days a week, the ratios are reversed. You get five days by the seaside in return for two days travelling – 2:5. The ratio of desirability hence increases by a factor of 25/4 which is 6.25....

*Mr. Sutherland shares this most nebulous of titles, which he says is "the best title" with Byron Wien, Vice-Chairman of Blackstone Advisory Partners.
Charlie Munger, Vice-Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway has a slightly different perspective:

"I didn't set out in life to become the assistant leader of a cult."
—Mr. Munger at the 2007 Wesco annual meeting as recorded
by T2 Partners' Whitney Tilson

I hope Ms Truss will be okay, that Mr. Hunt seems a right bastard. 
Now, I'm off to find a gif for the possible return of Boris Johnson.
And back to Mr Sutherland, sometimes he has strong opinions:

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