Sunday, October 30, 2022

A Look At Nouriel Roubini's New Book: "MegaThreats: Ten Dangerous Trends That Imperil Our Future, And How to Survive Them"

He's been making the book-hawking rounds but Spiegel in particular likes Professor Roubini, he made a couple good calls from their platform and the interviewers are comfortable speaking with him, as you'll see below.

From Der Spiegel, October 28:

"World War III Has Already Effectively Begun"
Global warming, war and inflation: The world seems to be in a perpetual state of crisis at the moment. In an interview, crash prophet Nouriel Roubini identifies 10 "megathreats" we are facing and how he is dealing with them.

DER SPIEGEL: Professor Roubini, you don't like your nickname "Dr. Doom." Instead you would like to be called "Dr. Realist." But in your new book, you describe "ten megathreats" that endanger our future. It doesn’t get much gloomier than that.

Roubini: The threats I write about are real – no one would deny that. I grew up in Italy in the 1960s and 1970s. Back then, I never worried about a war between great powers or a nuclear winter, as we had détente between the Soviet Union and the West. I never heard the words climate change or global pandemic. And no one worried about robots taking over most jobs. We had freer trade and globalization, we lived in stable democracies, even if they were not perfect. Debt was very low, the population wasn’t over-aged, there were no unfunded liabilities from the pension and health care systems. That's the world I grew up in. And now I have to worry about all these things – and so does everyone else.

DER SPIEGEL: But do they? Or do you feel like a voice crying in the wilderness?

Roubini: I was in Washington at the IMF meeting. The economic historian Niall Ferguson said in a speech there that we would be lucky if we got an economic crisis like in the 1970s – and not a war like in the 1940s. National security advisers were worried about NATO getting involved in the war between Russia and Ukraine and Iran and Israel being on a collision course. And just this morning, I read that the Biden administration expects China to attack Taiwan sooner rather than later. Honestly, World War III has already effectively begun, certainly in Ukraine and cyberspace.

DER SPIEGEL: Politicians seem overwhelmed by the simultaneity of many major crises. What priorities should they set?

Roubini: Of course, they must take care of Russia and Ukraine before they take care of Iran and Israel or China. But policymakers should also think about inflation and recessions, i.e. stagflation. The eurozone is already in a recession, and I think it will be long and ugly. The United Kingdom is even worse. The pandemic seems contained, but new COVID variants could emerge soon. And climate change is a slow-motion disaster that is accelerating. For each of the 10 threats I describe in my book, I can give you 10 examples that are happening as we speak today, not in the distant future. Do you want one on climate change?

DER SPIEGEL: If you must.....

....MUCH MORE

This one is from February 27, 2020 i.e. before the WHO even got around to declaring the coronavirus an emergency and thus before the lockdowns began in the U.S. And before the Dow Joneses continued their collapse by falling an additional 2,997.10 points during the White House press conference on March 16.
 
From Der Spiegel: 
"This Crisis Will Spill Over and Result in a Disaster"
Economist Nouriel Roubini correctly predicted the 2008 financial crisis. Now, he believes that stock markets will plunge by 30 to 40 percent because of the coronavirus. And that Trump will lose his re-election bid....
....MUCH MORE 
 
Tim Bartz was the solo interviewer on this one, he had a helper on the first interview above.
 
The S&P 500; MSCI and FTSE all fell 33 to 35% before the big reversal in the third week of March. Pretty good call.
 
What Dr. Roubini was not aware of, was that at the same time his interview was published the Fed was beginning to crank the valve on the fire hose of liquidity to wide open ($700 bil. QE on March 16) in addition to the half-point Fed Funds rate cut on March 3 and the full point rate cut on March 16.