Saturday, October 1, 2022

Just So You Know: "BIS backs "forceful" rate hikes despite rising recession risk"

I didn't see this when it came out but past experience* says one should pay attention to the rulers of money even if on a delay.

From Reuters, September 19:

The world's central bank umbrella body, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), has urged major economies to forge ahead with forceful interest rate hikes despite the growing threat of recessions and currency market volatility.

The Switzerland-based BIS' quarterly report acknowledged that both recession and debt risks were rising, but said that bringing soaring global inflation back down remained paramount.

"It is important to act in a timely and forceful way," the head of the BIS' Monetary and Economic Department, Claudio Borio, said. "Front-loading (of rate hikes) tends to reduce the likelihood of a hard landing."

This week is expected to see another super-sized rate hike from the U.S. Federal Reserve, whose sharp moves this year have, alongside Russia's invasion of Ukraine, already triggered widespread financial market turbulence.

Asked if there was a point at which central banks might go too far, Borio said that is the "1 billion, 3 billion, whatever number of billions you want to say, dollar question".

What makes it particularly complex, he added, is that this is the first time since at least World War II when policymakers are trying to tackle soaring inflation at a time when debt crises are already breaking out and when serious worries exist about overpriced property markets....

....MUCH MORE

Here's the BIS Quarterly Review, September 2022, September 19. They are not playing around.
*On June 26, 2007 (i.e. pre-"Quant-quake", pre-Bear Stearns, pre-ought-eight-near-catastrophe) we posted a short little piece:
"(Off-topic) Banks' banker warns of downturn":
THE risk of a 1930s-style economic slump has been heightened by "euphoric" markets tapping cheap global credit, one of the world's pre-eminent financial institutions has said.
In its annual report, the Bank for International Settlements noted that the conditions that led to the Great Depression of the 1930s and the Asian crises in the 1990s reflected the current environment.
From The Age
On April 28, 2010 it was Greece: "Exposure fears weigh on French, German banks"
From MarketWatch:
Banks with local subsidiaries, government-lending exposure most at risk
Banks in France and Germany have the biggest exposure to Greece of non-Greek lenders are also heavily exposed to other potentially at-risk countries, with those firms that operate local subsidiaries or with big local-authority funding activities likely to face the heaviest losses, analysts said.

The latest figures from the Bank for International Settlements show French banks have $75.2 billion of exposure to Greek borrowers, while the industry in Germany has an exposure of $45 billion. The U.K. trails a relatively distant third, with exposure of $15.1 billion....
One more, three months before things got really interesting:
June 2008
BIS: Don't Worry, Inflation Not a Problem Because Global Economy Will Crash 
There is a reason the BIS is known as the "Central banker's central bank".
Here's their website. I try to visit a couple times per month.