From Creighton University's Heider College of Business, October 3:
September Survey Highlights:
• The overall index or business barometer fell for the fifth time in the past six months but remained above growth neutral for the 28th straight month.
• The wholesale inflation gauge fell to its lowest level in two years.
• Manufacturers are stockpiling inventory to avoid supply chain disruptions.
• Supply chain disruptions remained the top risk for the final quarter of the year.
• Supply managers expect holiday economic activity to be flat for the final quarter of the year.
• In terms of manufacturing wage growth over the past 12 months, Nebraska (1) was tops in the region, followed by South Dakota (2), then Kansas (3), Missouri (4), Iowa (5), Minnesota (6), Oklahoma (7) and North Dakota (8). Manufacturing wages declined for Arkansas (9).OMAHA, Neb. (October 3, 2022) — The Creighton University Mid-America Business Conditions Index, a leading economic indicator for the nine-state region stretching from Minnesota to Arkansas, fell again in September but remained above growth neutral for the 28th straight month.
Overall Index: The Business Conditions Index, which uses the identical methodology as the national Institute for Supply Management (ISM) and ranges between 0 and 100 with 50.0 representing growth neutral, dropped to 52.7 in September from August’s 55.5. This marks the index’s lowest reading since June 2020 and the fifth decline in the past six months.
The Mid-America report is produced independently from the national ISM.
As stated by one supply manager, “Just seems like things are slowing down. Not drastically, but still slowing down.”
“Creighton’s monthly survey results indicate the region continues to add manufacturing activity, but at a slower pace with declining inflationary pressures. Supply chain disruptions eased further in September, according to supply managers,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, director of Creighton University’s Economic Forecasting Group and the Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics in the Heider College of Business.
Employment: Despite healthy growth in monthly economic activity for almost two years, manufacturers in the region have added jobs at only a modest pace. The employment index remained above growth neutral in September, increasing only slightly to a tepid 51.9 from August’s 51.8.
Other September comments from supply managers were:....
....MUCH MORE
