Thursday, October 13, 2022

CPI Inflation: Analysts React

A couple of the more useful comments:

Steve Chiavarone, senior portfolio manager at Federated Hermes:

“This report raises the risk that we may see a new cycle high in headline inflation before the end of the year. With energy prices moving back up, a mid-90s oil price in December could see us surpass the 9.1% headline peak from June... Looking at the components, what is most worrying is the big jump in services. Service inflation is the most sticky. This is where both shelter prices and wages reign supreme.”

Dennis DeBusschere, founder of 22V Research,

"This was clearly a bad number. It’s just broad-based inflation. Is what it is.... Need much more goods disinflation to offset the high sticky parts of core.”

From Bloomberg via Yahoo Finance, October 13:

‘Horrible CPI’ Has Some Bracing for Jumbo Hike: Wall Street Reacts

Wall Street hopes that the Federal Reserve might be able to ease up on its battle against inflation later this year were decisively dashed Thursday when consumer price index data for September came in unexpectedly hot. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 6.6% from a year ago, the highest level since 1982....

Seema Shah, Chief Global Strategist, Principal Asset Management:

“There can’t be anyone left in the market who believes the Fed can raise rates by anything less than 75bps at the November meeting. In fact, if this kind of upside surprise is repeated next month, we could be facing a fifth consecutive 0.75% hike in December with policy rates blowing through the Fed’s peak rate forecast before this year is over.”

“The composition of the inflation reading is perhaps even more worrisome than the overall number. Increases in shelter and medical care indices, the stickiest segments of the CPI basket, confirm that price pressures are extremely stubborn and will not go down without a Fed fight.”...

Priya Misra, global head of rates strategy at TD Securities:

“Stronger report on headline and core so the market move makes sense. The market pricing for the terminal rate was 4.66% before the report, now at 4.7% and this can keep nudging higher. We are looking for 5% terminal (effective of 4.83%)....

....MUCH MORE