From Marc to Market:
Monday Blues
Overview: The markets begin October with some trepidation. Rumors continue to circulate about the health of a large European bank, cross currency swaps are elevated, suggest dollars are more difficult to access. The S&P 500 settled on new lows for the year at the end of last week. China and South Korea on closed for national holidays. Chinese market will not open until next week, and Hong Kong markets are closed tomorrow. While the Nikkei advanced, the other large bourses in the region fell. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is giving back the pre-weekend gain of about 1.3%. US futures look heavy. The 10-year Treasury yield, which has risen for the past nine weeks (from 2.65% to 3.83% on a closing basis) is off a few basis points to day to 3.78%. European benchmark yields are mostly a little firmer, but The UK 10-year Gilt yield is softer around 4.06%. The dollar is mixed. The dollar-bloc currencies that were beaten up at the end of last week are better bid today as is the Norwegian krone. Sterling is among the advancers, but the euro, Swiss franc, and yen are nursing around quarter-point losses. Emerging market currencies are mostly heavier, with some exceptions (Russia, Poland, Mexico, and South Africa).
Gold poked above $1675 ahead of the weekend and has been sold back to around $1660 today and could retest $1650. The prospects that OPEC+ agree to cut 500k-1 mln barrels of production is helping lift December WTI, which is trading above last week’s highs. Initial resistance now is seen near $83.00. US natgas is off by about 1.5%, matching the pre-weekend loss to about $6.65. The 200-day moving average is near $6.53. Russia stopped gas shipments to Italy over the weekend and Europe’s natgas benchmark has jumped by about 7%. It fell 8.8% last week, its fifth consecutive drop. Iron ore fell 2.5% last week and has begun this week with another 2% loss. December Copper is off 1.4% to give back the lion’s share of last week’s gain. December wheat is firm, up 1.5% after 10.8% in September....
....MUCH MORE
