With the exception of corn we aren't seeing much in the way of extraordinary recent price trends to corroborate the conclusion but on the other hand futures on the three largest U.S. crops remain 50% to 75% above their January 2020 prices.
From The Wall Street Journal, September 20:
A lackluster U.S. harvest this year is setting back efforts to relieve a global food supply that has been constrained by Russia’s war in Ukraine, agriculture-industry executives said.
Senior executives from companies such as Bayer AG , Corteva Inc., Archer Daniels Midland Co. and Bunge Ltd. said worldwide crop supplies remain tight, and some said at least two more years of good harvests in North and South America are needed to ease the pressure. Persistent drought conditions in the U.S. and agricultural countries in South America, along with uncertainty over crop production in Ukraine, are making that harder, they said. “When it comes to the global food-supply situation, I think things are going to continue to be tight for the time being,” said Werner Baumann, Bayer’s chief executive.
High temperatures this summer exacerbated drought conditions in the U.S. West and the country’s Great Plains. Intense heat in states such as Kansas, Nebraska and Oklahoma set in as corn crops were pollinating in many parts of the Grain Belt, when the plants require the most water. Some corn crops were also planted late this year after a wet spring, causing some yield loss, according to agriculture analysts....
....MUCH MORE
Although the big traders sometimes don't talk their book, usually they do. The same, of course, is true of hedge funds so keep your wits about you.
Love,
George
Here's three years of CME corn prices via TradingView:
